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Electricity:
Lessons From Germany
The time has come to surmount the structural blindness and technological pessimism leveled at the potential of renewable energy on both sides of the Atlantic. It is high time we spent as much effort politically, scientifically, and technologically on the development of renewable energy as we once did on nuclear power.
In Germany, we have installed 16,000 megawatts of generating capacity in the past 12 years as a result of our renewable energy law.
Last year alone, we installed 3,000 MW of wind and solar energy. In contrast, Ontario is weighing bids for only 300 megawatts.
Due to our renewable energy law, we have added more than 100,000 solar systems to rooftops from Bavaria to Berlin, and we employ nearly 120,000 people across Germany who build, install and operate solar, wind, and biomass plants.
Our renewable energy law uses fixed prices and long-term contracts as a mechanism for rapidly deploying renewable energy--the same fixed prices and long-term contracts Ontario is offering its nuclear generators. If Ontario had followed a path similar to Germany's, it could be producing 17 per cent of its electricity with new sources of energy today, thestar.com reported.
Unlike fossil fuels and uranium, renewable energy produces electricity directly. There is no long supply chain from mine to processor to power plant. There are efficiency gains along the entire fuel cycle, from the mines to the final consumer, when renewable energy is used instead of conventional fuels.
A small number of highly centralized power plants, such as those in Ontario, will ultimately be superseded by many, perhaps thousands, of decentralized facilities. These distributed generators require fewer high-voltage transmission lines than the centralized plants, decreasing the need for construction of major new transmission corridors.
It is also much easier to develop renewable energy to its fullest potential in harmony with society than it is with nuclear power. Further, the use of renewable energy allows us to avoid nuclear's inherent risks.
As renewable energy advances, residential subdivisions and businesses completely supplied by solar or wind power will no longer be a utopian vision. Hybrid systems using complementary power sources, such as wind turbines and biomass generators, are one likely possibility.
These self-sufficient homes and businesses will eliminate the power transmission expenses that make up a big part of the present price for electricity.
As the costs of fossil-fired and nuclear-generated electricity inevitably rise, the cost of renewable energy will become steadily less expensive due to mass production and technological optimization.
During the past decade, wind power costs have fallen by 50 percent and those of photovoltaics (solar cells) have fallen nearly 30 per cent.
The slightly higher costs of today's renewable energy technologies are the cost savings of tomorrow. But we only gain those savings if we invest in renewable energy today.
Renewable energy is also an answer to future crude oil and natural gas shortages affecting transportation and heating needs--the latter a critical concern for Canadians.
DaimlerChrysler, Volkswagen and Ford have all concluded that biosynthetic fuels (bio-ethanol, bio-diesel and bio-gas) can be introduced more cheaply and more quickly than hydrogen produced from new nuclear plants.
Moreover, these renewable fuels don't require the costly new infrastructure that would be necessary to produce hydrogen by means of either coal or nuclear power.
Bio-fuels can be substituted directly into the existing distribution system. Bio-fuels have the potential to satisfy the world's transportation fuel needs, according to the World Biomass Conference held in Rome this year.
Equally important, energy-efficient solar panel construction can now supply complete home heating and cooling needs.
In Germany, 3,000 homes meet all their energy needs with solar or other forms of renewable energy. They require no external energy sources.
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BP Relies on Russia For Higher Production
BP Plc's oil and gas production rose 11 percent on the year in the third quarter but analysts expect strong earnings for the quarter to be mainly due to runaway oil prices rather than BP's record in finding oil.
BP produced around 3.88 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in the quarter, with a strong rise in Russian output--up 36 percent on the year--offsetting falls elsewhere, the company said in a trading statement on Monday.
The drop in non-Russian output was partly due to Hurricane Ivan in the Gulf of Mexico and a fire at an Egyptian gas platform, but follows a pattern of weakness in recent quarters that analysts said BP needs to address in the fourth quarter.
Analysts said the figures were broadly in line with expectations and that oil prices well above $40 a barrel during the period suggested bumper third-quarter profits, details of which are due out on Oct. 26.
BP, the world's second largest listed oil company, said it expected average production for 2004 to meet its previously stated target of above 4 million boepd.
"Overall it's quite positive on the upstream side, given that the company is on target for 4 million barrels a day output," Angus McPhail at ING said.
"BP said oil and gas production was down two percent compared to Q2."
BP shares were up 0.2 percent at 541 pence, Reuters reported.
Oil broke the $50 a barrel mark for the first time in September. Strong oil prices throughout 2004 have led to bumper profits at the oil majors.
Buybacks to Continue
BP said it would continue its share buyback program, which has helped boost the stock this year. However, analysts said the extent of the program would also hinge on whether BP can boost non-Russian production.
"If volume step-up happens in good regions with high margins, then the buyback could remain strong into 2005 even if the oil price falls back," said one analyst who asked not to be named.
Output from BP's TNK-BP operation produces lower margins than non-Russian businesses such as those in the Gulf of Mexico, where production remains much reduced after Hurricane Ivan crashed through the region in September.
Analysts were encouraged by BP's downstream performance. Refining margins rose on the year although they were below record second-quarter levels.
Investment bank Merrill Lynch increased its estimates for proforma net income for the third quarter by $101 million to $4.28 billion, to reflect what it said was the more robust than expected refining environment indicated by BP.
However, BP said gas marketing margins were significantly lower in the third quarter than in the second. Petrochemical margins and sales volumes were broadly unchanged on Q2.
Provisions for environmental remediation--activities such as cleaning up old oil facilities--and other non-operating liabilities amounted to around $500 million on a pretax basis, comparable to last year.
BP also flagged $100 million in non-operating losses in respect to writing off the Temsah platform in Egypt, which suffered the fire, and a charge for surplus vessel leases.
BP said the marker price for Brent crude was $41.54 in the quarter compared with $28.38 a year earlier. As a rule of thumb, the company's full-year profits would rise $570 million for every $1 rise in the Brent oil price, it said.
This suggests that even if Brent oil prices were to fall back to an average of $36 in Q4--$5 below the average for Q3--BP's full-year earnings could receive a $4.7 billion boost compared to last year, according to a Reuters calculation.
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OPEC Sees Oil Below $40
Despite continuing strong demand, oil prices may fall below $40 per barrel in the first quarter of next year if security concerns ease in producing countries, the head of the OPEC organization said Tuesday.
"The demand in the first quarter is still strong, however, I expect oil prices will come down if we eliminate non-fundamental factors, such as the situation in the Middle East, especially in Iraq," OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro told Reuters on the resort island of Bali.
"I expect prices to come down below $40," said Purnomo, who is also Indonesian oil minister. He did not specify which benchmark price he was referring to.
Oil prices have hit record highs this year as the fastest growth in oil demand in 24 years has left the global supply chain stretched almost to its limits, Reuters reported.
US light crude for November delivery jumped to $50.40 a barrel Tuesday, just shy of the all-time peak at $50.47 hit Sept. 28 when rebels in Nigeria threatened to close output in the oil-producing Niger delta in their battle for autonomy with the government.
OPEC's reference basket of seven crude grades stood at $43.28 a barrel Monday, not far off this year's high of $43.54.
Purnomo was in Bali for the start of a three-day conference to discuss transparency of oil supply and demand data under the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI).
Launched in 2001, JODI involves roughly 90 countries committed to improving the reliability and transparency of data on global oil output, consumption and stocks. JODI began publishing data for its members in May this year.
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Change in the Chinese Wind
The world's largest wind power project will begin construction this month near Beijing, bringing green energy and cleaner air to the 2008 Summer Olympics and city residents coping with some of the worst air pollution in the world.
The new wind power plant, located 60 miles outside Beijing in Guangting, will generate 400 megawatts per day, nearly doubling the electrical energy China currently obtains from wind. But that's just the beginning. Last summer at a climate change conference in Bonn, Germany, China surprised many by announcing it will generate 12 percent of its energy from renewable sources such as wind by 2020.
Today's the Day. Pollution is part of the driving force behind China's newfound passion for green energy, said Yu Jie of Greenpeace China's office in Beijing. "Acid rain blankets 70 percent of the country," Jie said, cutting crop yields, damaging trees and making rivers and lakes too acidic to support fish.
The country's galloping economic growth over the past 20 years has meant enormous increases in electrical power demands, 75 percent of which come from coal. China is the world's largest coal-consuming country and home to 16 of the world's 20 most polluted cities on the planet, according to the World Bank. At least 400,000 people in China die each year from air-pollution-related illnesses, the World Bank reports, wired.com reported.
Pollution is not China's only energy problem. It is also plagued by frequent and widespread power failures because its generating capacity cannot keep pace with industrial and consumer demands. The country leads the world in purchases of TV sets and other appliances.
While China has low-quality coal in abundance, its transportation infrastructure cannot ship enough coal from the mines in the west to the cities in the east, said Jie. Electrical energy self-sufficiency is a crucial goal for the Chinese leadership, especially as oil imports soar to provide gasoline for the 14,000 new motor vehicles being added to its streets every day.
These factors have pushed China to invite Western energy experts, including environmental groups like Greenpeace and the National Resources Defense Council, to help China become more energy-efficient and figure out how to produce 20,000 megawatts from wind by 2020.
A megawatt is a million watts, sufficient power to light 10,000 100-watt bulbs, or enough daily electricity for 600 to 1,000 households, depending on energy use. Germany currently leads the world, generating 12,000 megawatts from wind, with the United States well behind at 5,000 megawatts.
China is looking to Germany and Denmark to supply the technology and the policy models upon which to base a new renewable-energy law, said Jie. "This is the first time China has asked outsiders to comment on a proposed law."
"China's wind power potential is huge--500,000, perhaps 600,000 megawatts--but it needs the proper legal framework," said Corin Millais, executive director of the Brussels-based European Wind Energy Association. The association has contributed input on the Chinese renewable-energy law.
China has a complex mix of state, local and private energy generators, with multiple levels of subsidies and often conflicting regulations. "Changes in state and federal laws are needed, along with clear rules about who sets the price and who owns the wind power farms; otherwise the wind-energy boom won't happen," said Millais.
Another reason China is looking to wind is because it is now as cheap as coal, said Kyle Datta, managing director at Colorado's Rocky Mountain Institute, a leading independent energy research center. And if the health costs associated with coal burning are considered, wind is actually a lot cheaper, said Datta, who researched the Chinese energy market while co-authoring a book, Winning the Oil Endgame: American Innovation for Profits, Jobs and Security.
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Bio-Diesel Use May Up Long-Term Vegoil Demand
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A representative from bigwords.com, stands atop the vegetable-oil-powered bus in front of Pauley Pavillion.
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An expected rise in the use of bio fuels around the world may lead to a rise in the demand for and eventually the prices of vegetable oils in the next several years, an edible oil industry analyst told Dow Jones Newswires in a recent interview.
"A large number of countries are investing in bio-diesel technology. This investment will have implications for the demand and prices of vegetable oils in the medium and long term, though not necessarily in the short-term," said Thomas Mielke, editor-in-chief of Oil World, published from Hamburg, Germany.
"The European Union member nations are expected to have a production capacity of around 2.2 million-2.3 million tons of bio-diesel by the end of this calendar year," Mielke said, adding the European Union is in the vanguard of using bio-diesel technology, Dow Jones reported.
The trend in crude prices will also determine how fast the demand for bio-diesel rises, he said.
The demand for bio-diesel seems to be much higher this year than in the last two years following the sharp rally in fuel oil prices this year, Mielke said.
Crude oil futures were just shy of $50 a barrel Monday, amid continuing concerns about a slowdown in oil and gas operations in the US Gulf Coast.
November light sweet crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were at $49.66/bbl at 0645 GMT, down 46 cents in light Access electronic trade. The contract touched a high of $50.47/bbl Sept. 28
While some countries are now experimenting with running vehicles entirely on bio-diesel, others such as France are running vehicles on a mixture of 2%-3% vegetable oils and 97% diesel, Mielke said.
Bio-diesel can be made from a variety of sources, including animal fats and vegetable oils derived from crops such as soybeans, canola, corn and sunflowers.
It can also be derived from used vegetable oil, left over after cooking.
Near-Term Impact on Edible Oil Prices Limited
Mielke said the growing popularity of bio-diesel may have demand and supply implications for vegetable oils in the coming few years.
"If supply of vegetable oil remains inflexible as demand from the bio-diesel industry rises, edible oil prices will rise, which in turn may increase production of oilseeds," said Mielke.
He said positive fallout from an increase in bio-diesel demand could be an increase in the global acreage under oilseeds planting.
"Areas where productivity is very low and places which are quite remote and far from ports may suddenly find it lucrative enough to grow oilseeds," said Mielke.
However, in the short term, bio-diesel demand won't have much impact on edible oil prices, he said.
In the next few months, the market will look at other factors such as the size of the US and South American soybean crop and palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia, for getting its price triggers, Mielke said.
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