Many countries have begun to feel the economic impact of high energy and commodity prices on their economies.

Rising world crude supplies and signs that higher energy costs are hurting economic growth suggest oil's long price rally may finally have peaked, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.
A surge in production by the OPEC, a rebound in supply by non-OPEC countries and signs of slowing growth in fuel demand has already helped oil prices decline 15 percent from record highs hit in late October, the IEA said.
"Higher stocks, better sweet crude supply and lower forecast GDP growth suggest a seasonal peak. But sustained near-capacity operations are needed to ensure ample winter heating oil supply," the IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report.
Spare supplies are now starting to rebuild after a year when oil prices rallied nearly 50 percent this year as explosive demand growth in China strained world production capacity and ran down inventories.
Oil stocks in industrialized nations built by 560,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, and will build counterseasonally by another 1.3 million bpd in the fourh quarter if OPEC keeps supply at current levels, the IEA said.
Demand growth is also coming off the boil as increases in China's power generation capacity eases pressure for oil-burning, and Indian demand contracted for the first time in a year, the Paris-based agency said, financialexpress.com reported.
"Many countries have begun to feel the economic impact of high energy and commodity prices on their economies. We may be witnessing early signs of lagged price effects on global economic growth," it said.
OPEC crude output rose by 215,000 bpd to 30 million bpd in October on small increases from Algeria, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, the IEA said.
Output by OPEC at 30 million bpd would be enough to lift world crude inventories by a further two million bpd in the first quarter of next year, it said.
The IEA estimates the world "call on OPEC" crude for the fourth quarter, assuming zero stock change, at 28.7 million bpd, easing to 28 million bpd in the first quarter of 2005.
World oil supplies in October were bolstered by increased volumes from non-OPEC producers following summer maintenance. Non-OPEC output rose 685,000 bpd to 50.35 million bpd, although August and September estimates were revised lower.
Chinese consumption would depend on government policy measures, the IEA said, leaving its demand growth forecast unchanged at 14.7 percent for 2004 and 5.6 percent for 2005.
Despite a recent string of increases, China's state-controlled oil prices remain well below international markets.
"While such price controls are shielding end-users from the full effect of international market increases, they may also constrain supply by undermining refining and import economics," the IEA said.
Consumer buying on expectation of a rise in administered prices could push up demand in the short term, the IEA said, noting that some refiners had complained of consumer stock hoarding.

The drive to usher in a new hydrogen-run economy has taken a step closer to reality, with the installation of the nation's first hydrogen pumps at a corner gas station.
Hoping to show off the promise of a still-evolving technology, Shell Hydrogen and General Motors Corp. today will unveil two hydrogen dispensers at a busy Shell station just five miles from the Capitol.
The project is not really a commercial venture. The dispensers will be used to fuel only six fuel cell-powered Opel Zafira minivans owned by GM.
But the partners are hoping the availability of liquid and compressed hydrogen fuel at an otherwise typical gas station will intrigue energy policy-makers and the driving public alike.
Jeremy Bentham, chief executive officer of Amsterdam-based Shell Hydrogen, said the combined hydrogen-gasoline retail outlet will give Shell customers an early introduction to an attractive motoring future.
Government leaders have seized upon hydrogen as a potentially revolutionary fuel source that could help reduce urban smog, curb greenhouse gas emissions linked to climate change and lessen the nation's dependence on foreign oil, chron.com reported.

Work to Be Done
Fuel cells, through an electrochemical reaction, turn hydrogen into electricity, which then powers a vehicle. The only emission from this process is water vapor.
Fuel suppliers can use any number of sources to provide the necessary hydrogen - natural gas, coal, vegetable matter, even water. That's a flexibility that would allow the nation to substantially diversify its fuel mix.
President Bush unveiled a $1.7 billion proposal last year aimed at prodding hydrogen technology development. And earlier this year, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger announced a plan aimed at installing 150 hydrogen filling stations in the state by 2010.
Mass production of fuel cell vehicles, however, could be years, if not decades, off. Currently, there are fewer than 500 fuel cell vehicles in the world.

Lofty Expectations
GM officials are hoping, by the end of the decade, to produce a fuel cell vehicle that could compete on a cost basis with a car featuring a more standard internal combustion engine.
Even company officials concede that is a "stretch goal." Before fuel cells can become commercially viable, car makers will have to find alternative materials to replace the platinum and other precious metals currently used in their production.
Development of the fuel cell technology, however, is not the only hurdle. Fuel suppliers would have to respond to a fleet of new fuel cell cars and trucks with a massive infrastructure investment, to turn existing gasoline stations into hydrogen fueling centers.
Estimates of just how much it would cost to build the necessary distribution network vary widely. To get the effort rolling, Shell officials have estimated the industry would have to spend perhaps $20 billion to install hydrogen facilities at 15 percent to 20 percent of US gas stations and service 3 percent to 5 percent of the vehicles on the road.

Not Everyone's Sold
The technology, however, has its skeptics. Some Democrats, for example, have accused the Bush administration of focusing on long-range hydrogen technologies so as to divert attention from more pressing needs to diversify supplies and reduce consumption.
Shell rival Exxon Mobil Corp. points out that the cost of producing and distributing hydrogen would push up fuel costs to twice that of gasoline on a cents-per-mile-driven basis.
And there are the safety concerns. For many motorists, talk of hydrogen technology only conjures up images of the H-bomb or the Hindenburg dirigible disaster.
Exxon Mobil officials question how easily hydrogen technology can be adapted for the general public's use.

Take Precaution
"While hydrogen has been used safely for decades by highly trained technicians in industrial settings, its characteristics pose unique challenges for use in consumer markets," Exxon Mobil spokesman Russ Roberts said.
To protect the public in Washington's Ward 7, the Benning Road Shell station's hydrogen system, designed and engineered by Air Products, will be monitored electronically for leaks or fires.

Given the fast growth of China's auto market, the new standards would reduce China's projected dependence on oil imports and bring about significant changes to the auto market.

Stringent new fuel economy standards in China will force multinational automakers to upgrade their vehicles as Beijing moves to regulate gas consumption and curb its growing dependence on oil, a US-based research group warned Tuesday.
The regulatory tightening is set for two phases--one in 2005 and the other in 2008. When completed it will make fuel consumption standards overall more strict than the United States, the World Resources Institute said in a report.
The environmental think tank said that if the United States were to meet the Chinese standards announced in September, average auto fuel economy would need to increase by five percent in 2005 and 10 percent in 2008.
Given the fast growth of China's auto market, which is expected to expand at an average seven percent annually until 2020, the new standards would reduce China's projected dependence on oil imports and bring about significant changes to the auto market, it said.
"The new standards are designed to bring about rapid changes to the Chinese vehicle fleet, including the introduction of more advanced technologies," it said.
While questions remain about enforcement, and future oil and auto production plans, light trucks, for one, would be significantly affected because that segment requires more fuel economy improvements to bring them up to scratch, AFP reported.
While 66 percent of autos sold in China currently meet the 2005 standards and 35 percent today would meet the 2008 levels, only four percent of Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs) and minivans would meet next year's changes.
"As a result, the standards are likely to disrupt the future plans for automakers who intend to introduce larger, more powerful vehicles into the Chinese market," the report said.
Furthermore, the new Chinese fuel economy standards would affect companies differently, "creating possible competitive and financial implications for automobile manufacturers with sales in China".
Sixty-eight percent of the 470,000 cars Germany's Volkswagen sold in 2003 would meet the first round of changes next year but that would fall to 19 percent in the second phase.
France's Peugeot Citroen's entire fleet of autos already meets both standards, while General Motors will need to make the most fuel economy investments for phase one in 2005.
"For each manufacturer, the future cost to meet the new standards will be related to the percentage of cars sold that are non-compliant and to the degree of improvements necessary to bring those cars into compliance," it said.
"GM is likely to face the highest cost in the industry to comply with both phase one and phase two standards because its vehicles have to cover the largest gaps in fuel efficiency to become compliant with the new regulations."
Along with Peugeot Citroen, Ford and Toyota are best positioned as their cars would need none or few improvements.
The report went on to add that if an increasingly energy-hungry China was serious about fuel savings in what is projected to be the world's largest vehicle market by 2025, it would have to do even more.
"It is likely that China would need to further tighten fuel economy standards over the medium to long term," the report said.

Rising oil prices and the upcoming implementation of the Kyoto Protocol on greenhouse gases, following the recent ratification by Russia, are accelerating the process of turning Brazil into a world leader in "bio- energy".
Exports of alcohol made from sugarcane are expected to increase from 800 million liters last year to two billion litres this year--this expansion trend continues independent of rising world oil prices.
There are many countries, like Japan, that are moving to blend ethanol with gasoline, or increase the alcohol additives in fuel, as a means towards curbing air pollution.
It augurs for renewable energy sources having a strong global impulse with the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, which sets goals for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, responsible for climate change.
The Russian Senate announced its ratification of the global treaty Oct. 27. Once it is enacted by the Russian president, the Kyoto Protocol will enter into force, as it has finally achieved the required threshold of countries: a total that produces at least 55 percent of the world's greenhouse gases.
In Brazil, renewable fuel is recuperating the popularity it had in the 1980s, and not just because of the lower price. There is a growing demand for ''bi-fuel'' automobiles that can use gasoline, fuel alcohol or any mix of the two. These cars were put on the market last year, independed-media.tv reported.
In 1985 and 1986, alcohol-fuelled vehicles had achieved the incredible proportion of 76 percent of all of Brazil's car production. But supply and price problems eroded the Proalcohol programme for fuel substitution that had been launched during petroleum crisis of 1973.
Output of alcohol-driven cars hit bottom in 1997--just 0.06 percent of total car production, according to Brazil's National Association of Automotive Manufacturers.
Since then there has been a gradual recovery, which was particularly notable last year, with 84,173 alcohol-fuelled cars, including the bi-fuel vehicles, represented 4.6 of automotive production. This year that portion is expected to be five times as big, as 253,817 such cars were produced from January through September.
The possibility of using one fuel or another, along with the reasonable price, contributes to public confidence in alcohol as a fuel in general. It reduces the risk of shortages or sudden price hikes at service stations.
In addition, all gasoline in Brazil contains 20 to 25 percent anhydrous alcohol, which reduces petroleum dependence and pollution. And work is beginning on manufacturing crop spraying aircraft that run on ethanol.
The subsidized development of Proalcohol cost some 40 billion dollars, but the country has ''already recovered those expenses'' and is now seeing its fruits, including the continued development of related technology, Osvaldo Stella Martins, an expert with the National Centre for Biomass Research, told TierramŽrica.
The sugarcane needed to make Brazil the world leader in sugar and alcohol production also generates enormous quantities of waste pulp, a source of energy that feeds the electricity market as well as running the sugar mills and distilleries.
Now the new biodiesel programme is motivating researchers and business leaders. The government announced that it will authorise its addition to regular diesel fuel in November, in a proportion of two percent and increasing to five percent over the next few years.
Beyond reducing the need to import fuel and curbing environmentally harmful emissions, the programme is intended to be socially inclusive, generating hundreds of thousands of jobs and promoting family farming in impoverished areas, says Science and Technology Minister Eduardo Campos.
It is also a government priority to promote production of fuel using the castorbean (Ricinus communis) in the Brazilian northeast, the country's poorest region. But biodiesel made from castorbeans must be more heavily subsidised, as it costs three times more than petroleum, said Stella, a mechanical engineer who holds a doctorate in ecology and natural resources.
Castor oil, the raw material for hundreds of chemical, medicinal and cosmetic products, has great unsatisfied global demand, and it would be more logical to promote its production as an industrial input, instead of using it for biodiesel and burdening society with the cost of subsidies in order to ''resolve a problem for Petrobras,'' the giant state-run oil company, he said.
The problem is that Petrobras must produce diesel without sulphur, for environmental protection reasons, and it would be better to substitute that lubricant with biodiesel, transferring costs to society, explained the expert.