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Wheat production is expected to reach 14 million tons by 2011.
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Global grain trade has always been of interest to economists because grain represents the single most important component of world food consumption. It is one of the world's key staple products, with about 12 percent of production traded on world markets each year.
The majority of previous studies in the world grain trade have argued the market is imperfectly competitive. For some markets (wheat, rice) exporters have been found to hold market power, while others suggest importers have the power to influence prices.
Wheat has been the staple food of major civilizations in Europe, Western Asia, and North Africa for 8,000 years. During the past four decades the crop has undergone historic changes. Asia experienced benefits from the "Green Revolution", started in the mid 1960s. The region made great strides in food production, achieving sufficiency in basic grains. Crop production is dictated by nature, but post-production operations play an important role in creating a stable food supply. It is estimated that about 25 million tons of wheat are lost during post-harvest stages (including storage and post-production). About 46 percent of this loss is recorded in developing countries.
In Asia wheat, rice and maize are the major food grains contributing over 90 percent of the total food production. Regional production data show an estimated 42 percent of the world's wheat, rice and maize during 1997 were produced in Asia, followed by 31 percent in Europe and 16 percent in North Central America. Asia contributes about 92 percent of world's rice production followed by South America and Africa at about 3 percent each. North America contributes half of the world's maize production, followed by Asia, Europe and South America, which contribute 27 percent, 11 percent and 8 percent, respectively.
Unsteady Trend
In 1971, the government in Iran purchased over 5,000 tons of wheat locally up from near 840 tons in the previous year, while it imported slightly over 600,000 tons, down from 845,674 purchased the year before, according to an article published in Persian daily Jahan-e-Eqtesad.
Domestic wheat purchase in the subsequent year reached 3,000 tons, while imports also declined to 543,267 tons.
Interestingly, domestic purchase and imports respectively reached over 116,000 and 550 tons a year later, and further grew by 496,742 tons and 1,284,737 tons the following year.
In 1976, the government bought 793,900 tons from farmers and had to purchase another 830,389 tons from outside the country. The following year, both increased to 980,541 and near two million tons respectively.
With the victory of the Islamic Revolution in 1979, both the domestic purchase and imports decreased respectively to 741,264 and 1,138,949 tons. There was an increase of more than 88,000 tons in purchase of domestic wheat the following year, reaching 830,133 tons, contrary to a fall in its imports by 180,813 tons, coming down to 958,136 tons.
War and Wheat
With the start of the Iraqi-imposed war in 1980, both domestic purchase and import of this staple commodity underwent major changes. The conflict induced huge losses on the farmers because government bought 377,824 tons less from local farmers while imports grew significantly, reaching 2,346,972 tons. This showed an increase of near 1.4 million tons, although imports declined to near 2 million tons and the government bought 839,563 tons from domestic wheat growers.
The next two years saw trivial changes in the amount and value of wheat imports and its domestic purchase as well. However, farmers were able to sell 125,821 tons of their product to the government in 1983, a major decline compared to the previous years. The same year, the government had to bring 3,256,406 million tons of wheat from abroad.
Imports declined considerably in the next few years, reaching a low in 1986 when more than 2 million tons of wheat was obtained from local farmers, causing a major reduction in imports to 1,765,380 tons.
By 1988, when a cease-fire was announced between Iran and Iraq, domestic purchase and imports had reached near two million and slightly over 1.5 million tons, respectively.
Almost a decade later and in 1997, government wheat purchases from local farmers exceeded 6 million tons, while imports fell to near 3 million tons. Until, 2001 figures remained relatively stable.
Boom Harvest
A boom harvest of 8.6 million tons in 2002 cut Iran's wheat imports by 50 percent. In the same year, Iran obtained 8.6 million tons of local wheat, which showed a 46 percent increase in local output compared to the previous year.
Domestic wheat production in 2003 reached near 12 million tons.
Iran will not need to import the grain next year for the first time in decades.
The country has attained self-sufficiency in wheat.
The development is remarkable as the country was one of the world's largest wheat importers just a few years ago. It is estimated to have imported an average of $750 million worth of the crop per year since 1997.
During a severe drought between 1999-2001, it became the world's largest wheat importer, shipping in an average of six millions tons annually, mostly from Canada, Australia, Argentina and France.
But domestic production rose drastically last year and imports dropped to about 2.8 million tons. So far this year, just 520,000 tons have been imported.
In 2002, more than half the country's farmlands, some 6.2 million hectares, were used to grow wheat.
Wheat production is expected to reach 14 million tons by 2011.
The crop is an essential part of the diet of the country's 70 million people. Bread is the staple food, outstripping even rice and is heavily subsidized by the government.
Economic experts have predicted that self-sufficiency in wheat will help Iran save large sums in foreign currency. Now that the country has managed to overcome the need for wheat imports, officials should eye global markets.