The solar photovoltaic industry in the United States has lagged behind the German and Japanese markets for a few years now.

Industry is rarely stagnant, though sometimes it moves much slower than some people would like. The solar photovoltaic industry in the United States has lagged behind the German and Japanese markets for a few years now, and the Solar Catalyst Group business consortium of Co-op America and the research group Clean Edge have come up with a plan to make US solar shine again.
The Solar High-Impact National Energy (SHINE) project proposed by the two organizations is a ten-year plan to push solar PV over the tipping point and make solar cost-effective for businesses, homeowners, industry, and utilities far faster than current, business-as-usual trends, solaraccess.com reported.
SHINE could create up to 580,000 new American jobs and generate up to 9 percent of the country's total electricity needs by 2025, according to the joint press release, which would be the equivalent of serving over 48 million American homes with clean energy.
"SHINE outlines an energy- and economic-security plan that will help protect America from the staggering human and economic costs that we suffer when our energy supply gets disrupted from conflict, accidents, supply constraints, or acts of malice," said Alisa Gravitz, the executive director of Co-op America. "The SHINE plan catalyzes American entrepreneurs and business to regain dominance in the fast-growing solar PV market, overcome critical climate change issues, and create jobs and economic prosperity--all without burdensome regulation, global treaties, or any new costs to federal taxpayers."
Programs to help reach those goals are: the Solar Utilization National Underwriting Plan (SUNUP), which proposes a federal block-grant program to provide matching funds to states to implement solar installation programs; the US Rooftop Initiative for Solar Energy (US RISE), which proposes an aggressive federal commitment to purchase solar systems for government facilities and operations; and the American Solar Advancement Prize (ASAP), a high-stakes/high-reward competition to develop and deploy new solar technologies and systems that could dramatically reduce costs for the PV industry.
Federal funding for SHINE should be less than $5 billion over ten years, according to the press release. The investment would be paid through energy savings and a small shift in government energy investments in fossil fuels, and that plan should make SHINE revenue-neutral.
"SHINE will enable the US to play a leadership role in clean-energy technology development rather than ceding yet another industry to Europe and Asia," said Ron Pernick, co-author of the report and co-founder of Clean Edge. "The report outlines a blend of market and capital forces, nudged by a small initial government investment, to produce significant economic, environmental, and social returns."
SHINE's programs reduce the price of solar far faster than would take place under business as usual, thereby creating mass markets for solar PV decades sooner than they would otherwise develop, the organizations said. Within ten years the program could reduce prices to $2.50 a watt or less, the price at which solar becomes affordable for most retail electricity customers.
By 2025, SHINE's programs could reduce prices to as low as 80 cents per installed watt, compared to about $2.70 for the business-as-usual case. That difference would make solar cost-competitive with coal, natural gas, and other more polluting energy sources for nearly every application, from residential and commercial rooftops to utilities and hydrogen infrastructure applications.

World oil supplies are certain to remain tight through the rest of this decade.

Within two yearsÕ time the price of oil could reach $200 a barrel. Farfetched? Maybe. Although estimates of oil and gas reserves vary widely, geologists Anders Sivertsson, Kjell Aleklett and Colin Campbell, of Uppsala University in Sweden, are the latest in a growing group of experts who believe that oil supplies will peak by 2010, if not before, and gas soon after.
A study by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre concludes that world oil supplies are certain to remain tight through the rest of this decade.
It found that all the major new oil-recovery projects scheduled to come on stream over the next six years were unlikely to boost supplies enough to meet the worldÕs growing needs.
The centre analyzed 68 Òmega projectsÓ that will add about 12,5-million barrels a day to world oil supplies by the turn of the decade. More than half of the estimated new supply would simply replace production declines elsewhere, businessday.com reported.
ÒWith most producers operating flat out to meet runaway demand increases this year, the worldÕs immediately available spare production capacity has virtually disappeared,Ó the report read.
Production quotas are unable to keep pace with world demand of 82-million barrels a day, which is increasing as ChinaÕs and IndiaÕs economies grow.
The era of cheap oil is at an end, experts and the industry are warning. A diverse range of oil industry insiders--like Ali Bakhtiari, head of strategic planning at IranÕs National Oil Company; Dr Colin Campbell; a former executive vice-president of Total-Fina; and Matthew Simmons, an energy investment banker and energy adviser to the Bush administration--are united in their belief that global oil production is about to peak, which will signal the permanent end of cheap oil.
And they warn that this is the reason for the current rise in oil prices. Simmons believes oil is Òfar too cheapÓ and should be about $182 a barrel. The only way to control demand is to price oil realistically, allowing for time to find fuels to fill the gap between an oil economy and a renewable fuel economy.
Large new oil fields are ever more difficult to find and Campbell says endless growth is not possible. The adherents of the Òpeak oil theoryÓ warn that the decline of world oil output will force oil prices higher for good, and that the knock-on effects could be catastrophic.
Bakhtiari believes there will be a sudden explosion in prices soon and the people who will be least affected will be the impoverished, who have no access to energy, and the super-rich. The middle classes will be hurt the most, he warns.
CampbellÕs research into oil reserves suggests that many official oil data are either flawed estimates or at worst downright lies. Scandals like the 23% of ÒlostÓ reserves at Royal Dutch/Shell last year have boosted interest in his work. False reserves threaten the security of energy supply, just as much as bombs under pipelines.
It seems clear the world is close to that tipping point where demand exceeds supply. Elementary economics warns that when this happens prices increase.
Political events, of course, also have an effect on oil prices. But it is unlikely that the US plans to invade Iraq were calculated around oil prices at $50 a barrel. The strategists were probably hoping for $20 a barrel. In the event that oil supplies from Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia become unpredictable, is $200 a barrel unrealistic if the worldÕs largest producers are upset by war, invasions and political agendas?

National Petrochemical PCL (NPC.TH), a Thai olefins producer, plans to invest THB6.85 billion during 2005-2007 to expand its facilities.
A major part of the expansion is a THB19.64 billion new ethylene cracker project to be completed by unit PTT Polyethylene Ltd., said the company's President Viroj Marvichak.
PTT Polyethylene is a 50-50 joint venture between National Petrochemical and its parent PTT PCL (PTT.TH), Thailand's largest oil & gas conglomerate,
Two other large projects are a THB8 billion phenol production plant and a THB4.82 billion electricity and steam generation project. NPC is jointly investing in both projects with PTT and PTT affiliates.
Viroj said NPC this year will invest THB2.22 billion, followed by THB2.42 billion in 2006 and THB2.22 billion in 2007.
The company will use its cash flow and bank loans to fund the investment, Viroj added, according to yahoo.com.
Under an initial plan, PTT Polyethylene Ltd. will annually produce 485,000 metric tons of ethylene and 300,000 tons of low density polyethylene at the new ethylene cracker project. The project is expected to start production late 2008.
However, Viroj said investment in the ethylene project may rise if PTT expands the capacity of the ethylene cracker to 1 million tons. PTT is expected to made a decision by end-March.
Viroj said NPC is conducting a feasibility study to expand into downstream projects should the new ethylene cracker's capacity be expanded to 1 million tons.
Two potential downstream projects are a $130-million ethylene vinyl acetate, or EVA, project, which would have a capacity of 120,000 tons a year and a $70 million ethylene propylene diene monomer, or EPDM, project, with a capacity of 35,000 tons a year.
For the THB8 billion phenol project, PTT Phenol Ltd., a consortium of NPC, PTT and PTT affiliates, will produce 200,000 tons of phenol and 125,000 tons of acetone.
Viroj said NPC is also considering investment opportunities in Indonesia, Iran and Vietnam. The investment may include ethylene crackers and downstream projects, depending on the area.
According to Viroj, NPC's revenue this year will rise slightly to around THB20 billion, thanks to a minor expansion in its ethylene plant this year.
NPC is scheduled to shut down its ethylene plant for one month in May, after which its annual ethylene production will be increased by 25,000 tons to 460,000 tons. Meanwhile, its propylene production will remain at 120,000 tons a year.
Ethylene prices this year are expected to hover at around $600-$700 a ton.
In 2004, NPC recorded an 88% jump in net profit to THB4.36 billion on total revenue of THB19.84 billion, thanks to higher product prices and sales volume.

China said Sunday its rapidly growing economy would rely mainly on domestic oil resources to satisfy its energy demands, refuting claims its huge appetite for oil was driving up world prices.
Speaking on the second day of the annual legislative meeting, Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing said reports blaming China for rising oil prices were "totally ungrounded."
"It is true China's oil imports have increased a little bit over the past one or two years. However, the total of China's oil imports only accounts for around six percent of the world's traded oil," Li told a news conference.
China was not only a big energy consumer but also one of the world's major energy producers and domestic production would play a key role in meeting the country's needs, Li noted.
"China's energy demand is mainly to be met by its domestic resources," Li said.
"We still have considerable space for the development of our domestic energy supply and we also have big potential in saving energy and improving the use of energy efficiency, AFP reported.
Therefore China's import of oil will not exert a big impact on international oil prices."
China's overall 2004 crude oil imports rose 34.8 percent to 120 million ton--the highest level in the past four years, yahoo.com reported.
Li's comments appeared to contradict ongoing research.
Oil consumption in China is expected to rise sharply by 2010, with more than half of the country's demand being met through imports, Gao Shuxian, a director with the Energy Research Institute under the National Development and Reform Commission, said last month.
China's demand for oil is expected to hit 350 million to 380 million tons by 2010, Gao told the Oriental Morning Post.
This means China would need 180 million to 200 million tons--or more than 50 percent of its consumption--of imported oil in five years if it was to power the factories responsible for last year's economic growth of 9.5 percent.
The world's second largest oil consumer after the United States has seen imports soar as flagging domestic production has failed to keep up with booming economic growth and demand for gasoline in the auto market.
World oil prices have nearly trebled from about 20 dollars a barrel in New York at the start of 2002.
Analysts have said demand was not only strong in industrializing giants China and India, but was also robust in northern Europe, Brazil and North America.

ÒEnergy is obviously a high-stakes game, especially in the oil sector, and not a business for the feint-hearted.Ó
This is according to the article, ÔBig ThinkersÕ, recently published in the Accenture Journal, Outlook. This article succinctly describes the current energy industry trend in which the majors are moving out of the worldÕs maturing oil basins and the smaller independents are moving into these regions.
It puts the scenario in a nutshell: ÒIn an ever-evolving industry, the supermajorsÕ strategic focus is shifting away from the maturing basins in the North Sea and North America, which are no longer as economically attractive for such huge companies. The supermajors are taking their quest for assets into emerging markets, leaving the mature fields to a different set of players, the so-called independent oil companies.Ó
'Big Thinkers' points out that the independents are lean with particularly focused operations, giving them a cost advantage when it comes to making older assets paym, eyefroenergy.com reported.
What factors constitute a high performing independent?
The Outlook Journal article refers to a study conducted by Accenture, the purpose of which was to ascertain what sets the high performing independents apart from their peers. It in particular examined four high performers that had shown continuous success over past years.
Accenture questioned what it is that these organisations do differently? It apparently discovered six key attributes, the combination of which made a consistently high performing independent.
Interestingly, Accenture found, these high performers do not necessarily always Òboast the lowest global exploration, development or acquisition costs.Ó Evidently, what distinguished them was a coordinated balance of the six key attributes, eyeforenergy.com reported.
The following is a summary of some key findings, as identified and described by Accenture.
1. A growth-focused strategy: While their growth strategies vary, all four high performers have been growing aggressively, and have done so by steadily replacing their reserves, either organically, through M&A, or by leveraging the undeveloped acreages of their international operations. These companies have achieved growth without sacrificing capital efficiency. In fact, one of the high performers has the lowest debt/market-capitalization ratio in the business.
It appears that by maintaining good credit ratings, the high performers have ensured continued access to cheaper capital. As a result, they can take advantage of growth opportunities as they arise, and retain the financial capacity to fund future acquisitions.
2. Mastery of niche technologies: According to research, since 1980 advances in technology have cut offshore oil exploration and development costs by 80% and halved these costs onshore. The independents are well placed to take advantage of these changes.
3. Operational excellence: High performers in this industry do not appear to be emotionally attached to their assets, and are also biased towards operatorship. The example given is that of a high-performing independent that aims to take a large equity stake in a key asset to hold the most decision-making power (in exchange for assuming more of the risk).
4. Strong, involved leadership: The Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) of high-performance companies in the energy sector provide hands-on leadership and exceptional clarity of vision.