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Iran is planning to rid itself of its oil revenues by the end of the Fifth Economic Development Plan (2010-2015).
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More often than not, most oil exporting countries, because of international crises, regional conflicts and the consequences of global policies of super powers such as the United States and Europe on crude oil prices, employ certain mechanisms to protect themselves and secure their economy against any challenges.
Similarly, the Islamic Republic, which largely depends on oil revenues, falls under the purview of the above rule. Therefore, like Norway, Kuwait, Mexico and East Azerbaijan, it established a foreign exchange reserve fund to stash away any excess revenue from oil exports. In this respect, the country is planning to rid itself of its oil budget by the end of the Fifth Development Plan.
Iran–s economic strategy as regards investment, production and non-oil exports, which are the main denominators for achieving economic development, needs to be defined and implemented exclusive of oil revenues such as non-oil exports (products, services, tourism). Either way, the country needs widespread reforms in its economic and social structure.
Development of tourism industry, because of fundamental social and cultural setbacks on one side and political and security issues on the other, has not been promoted in a positive manner.
Therefore, attention has to be shifted toward non-oil exports. Of course, because of the following reasons it is impossible to expect reforms in a short period of time, which could tide over the deficit in hard currency revenues from oil.
Bank profit rates in Iran, compared to international standards, are unconventionally high. This has increased investment costs almost four times than that of other nations. It has also augmented the deficit of productive investment volume, and if not dealt with on time, the continuation of investment deficit would result in production decline and subsequently, non-oil exports.
Likewise, the hike in foreign exchange rates, apart from being an incentive for non-oil exports, will lead to the reduction of exports. This is because of improper grounds for exports as well as higher costs of investment deals, which effectively determine the closing prices of export products.
Iran has been unable to join the World Trade organization (WTO). This has deprived the country from international economic privileges, tariffs and psychological facilitations for its goods transit and investments. It has also been a huge obstruction for domestic economic development in terms of global competition and growth.
The inability to gain access to modern technology on one hand and the existence of outdated production facilities and equipment on the other, are other obstacles for production and non-oil exports development.
Since the increase in oil revenues, particularly during the Third Development Plan, the country has been trying hard to give the much-needed attention to modernization, but it is still far from international standards.
Shortfalls in labor productivity, as compared to international standards and increased production costs make the country–s non-oil exports uncompetitive. For instance, in Pakistan, India and Malaysia, the workforce productivity rate saw a 25-percent increase during 1985-1995. They even reported some 50-percent increase by 1995, whereas such productivity rate in Iran was just 3 percent during the same period.
However, every year, without any attention to the productivity rate of the workforce, salaries are officially raised even though there is no logical relation between the increase in the rate of salaries and that of labor productivity. This undermines the validity of cheap labor claims in Iran, which, if true, can be an advantage in any economy. Regardless of that, in the Fourth Development Plan, in order to reach an 8-percent growth in GDP, some 3.5-percent workforce productivity growth rate has also been predicted. But there have been no fundamental reforms in the production industry and hence it would be impossible to create any kind of motivation in the workplace in order to boost productivity.
Nevertheless, keeping in mind the above-mentioned shortfalls and the murky international oil market, the establishment of foreign exchange reserve fund will reveal its true value and benefits in due course. Any irregular spending from this fund, which is against its very creation, would be indeed unfortunate, because it will have serious consequences, create new challenges for the economy and even influence all levels of socio-political activities.