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Thu, Jul 26, 2007
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Economy News in Brief
Israel’s Largest Union Launches General Strike
China Blocks Bid For WTO Action
$100 Oil Price
May Be Months Away
Japan’s Trade Surplus Up
German Jobless Declining
British Floods to Wash $6.2b From Insurers
EU Cereal Yields Below Average
GM Will Invest $6b in Daewoo Unit

Israel’s Largest Union Launches General Strike
BEIT-UL-MOQADDAS,
July 25--Israel’s largest trade union on Wednesday launched a general strike that shut down the country’s seaports, land crossings, railways, mail service and many public services but did not stop travel at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport.
The Histadrut labor union began the open-ended strike at 6 a.m. (0300 GMT), after talks with the Finance Ministry over public sector pay had broke down, AP reported.
In a televised news conference Tuesday night, Histadrut chairman Ofer Eini said that due to hundreds of requests a strike at Israel’s only international airport would be delayed till Thursday morning.
With schools on their summer break, this is a peak period overseas travel period for Israeli families. Analysts suggested the Histadrut could be hoping that the government would make concessions after the first day’s strike, avoiding an unpopular airport shutdown.
General strikes in Israel encompass a wide array of services, and much of the country is paralyzed. Government offices are shuttered, and state-run utilities operate on skeleton staffs, carrying out no repairs.

China Blocks Bid For WTO Action
GENEVA, July 25--China on Tuesday followed standard WTO practice by blocking a first US and Mexican request to set up a World Trade Organization panel to examine allegedly illicit Chinese industrial subsidies.
Under the organization’s rules, the request by the United States and Mexico is likely to be automatically accepted at the WTO Dispute Settlement Body’s (DSB) next meeting on August 21, unless they drop the move in the meantime, AFP reported
The DSB meeting on Tuesday decided to merge separate complaints made by the United States and Mexico earlier this month, at the request of both countries, a trade source said.
In the documents lodged with the WTO, the two countries target tax breaks they claim China offers to companies if they buy Chinese supplies instead of imported goods or that appear to be based on a firm’s export performance.
The formal move by the US to step up the dispute comes amid growing pressure in Washington to respond to a burgeoning trade deficit with China and concerns that Beijing is flouting rules used by most trading partners. “The United States is deeply concerned that China is providing numerous subsidies that appear to be prohibited under WTO rules,“ the United States said in a statement to the meeting.
China said it regretted the US decision to drop negotiations with Beijing on a possible settlement and to turn to the WTO for a ruling. Beijing underlined recently issued legal changes to company taxation and said “several non existent measures“ were included in the complaint. “For the reasons mentioned, China is not able to accept the establishment of a panel at this meeting,“ the statement added.
Mexico said it would also continue to seek a negotiated solution to the dispute.
US officials have argued that state subsidies for steel, paper, information technology and other industries allow China to export its goods cheaply and prevent US companies from competing fairly.

$100 Oil Price
May Be Months Away
LONDON, July 25--The $100-a-barrel oil that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said would prevail by 2009 may be only a few months away.
Jeffrey Currie, a London-based commodity analyst at the world’s biggest securities firm, says $95 crude is likely this year unless OPEC unexpectedly increases production, and declining inventories are raising the chances for $100 oil. Jeff Rubin at CIBC World Markets predicts $100 a barrel as soon as next year. “We’re only a headline of significance away from $100 oil,“ said John Kilduff, an analyst in the New York office of futures broker Man Financial Inc, Bloomberg wrote.
“The unrelenting pressure of increased demand has left the market a coiled spring.“ New disruptions of Nigerian or Iraqi supplies might trigger the rise, Kilduff said in a July 20 interview.
Higher prices will increase revenue for energy producers from Exxon Mobil Corp. to PetroChina Co., while eroding profit at airlines including EasyJet Plc and railroads such as Union Pacific Corp. The US and other oil-importing nations risk accelerating inflation, while higher energy costs threaten to restrain growth.
Benchmark crude oil futures ended last week at $75.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 51 percent since mid- January and twice the level of early 2003. A record number of options have been sold that give the buyer the right to buy crude oil at $100. The contracts, covering 50 million barrels, only pay off should oil go above the target price. September crude futures fell 89 cents to $74.90 at 11:16 a.m. in New York today.
Arjun Murti, a New York-based Goldman Sachs analyst who covers oil producers and refiners, roiled markets in March 2005 with a report saying prices could touch $105 a barrel during a “super spike“ period because demand was stronger than anticipated. Price swings might also go as low as $50, Murti said at the time.
Currie, Goldman’s global head of commodities research in London, is predicting that oil prices will probably touch a record and stay at unprecedented levels for months or years.

Japan’s Trade Surplus Up
TOKYO, July 25--Japan’s merchandise trade surplus rose 53.4 percent in June, marking an eighth straight month of gain largely supported by strong auto exports to Asia, US and Europe, the Finance Ministry said Wednesday. The surplus--or the margin by which exports exceed imports--rose from a year ago to 1.227 trillion yen (US$10.18 billion; -7.36 billion), AP quoted the ministry as saying.
Economists had expected a 18.6 percent increase on year. Global exports gained 16.2 percent to 7.284 trillion yen (US$60.45 billion; -43.70 billion), while imports rose 10.7 percent to 6.056 trillion yen (US$50.26 billion; -36.33 billion), the ministry said. Growing auto sales in Asia--especially China--and Europe lifted export numbers, the ministry said.
Brisk auto exports also boosted Japan’s politically sensitive surplus with the US, which rose 7.8 percent to 745 billion yen (US$6.18 billion; -4.47 billion) after two months of declines, the ministry said. Japan’s trade surplus dipped in April and May in the first fall in more than two years.
Economists have been monitoring trade with the US to size up the condition of the US economy and its possible impact on Japan. Signs of sluggish US demand for Japanese goods indicate economic growth in Japan may slow in the second quarter.
Japan’s surplus with Asia grew 34.8 percent to 945 billion yen (US$7.84 billion; -5.67 billion), while that with Europe gained 19.9 percent to 448 billion yen (US$3.71 billion; -2.68 billion). Japan’s trade deficit with China narrowed 36.1 percent to 84.8 billion yen (US$703.73 million; -508.71 million), a third monthly decrease in a row.

German Jobless Declining
079947.jpg
Picture shows people waiting in a job center next to a placard
reading "New jobs every week. Market and chance" in the eastern town of Bautzen, Germany.
FRANKFURT, Germany, July 25--The jobless total in Germany, the eurozone’s biggest economy, will continue to decline and may even fall below three million in the next few years, the head of the Federal Labour Agency said in an interview published Tuesday.
By 2011, the overall jobless total, which currently stands at around 3.8 million, could fall below the three-million mark, labor office chief Frank Weise told the daily Die Welt in its online edition, AFP wrote.
“It will take some time,“ Weise said. “For 2011, the German government is forecasting an annual average jobless total of 3.2 million. But in view of the sharp fluctuations during the course of the year, the three-million mark could be undercut in very good months, say in September or October,“ he said.
The German jobless total fell below the politically sensitive level of five million in the winter of 2006 and this year fell below four million. Some optimistic observers suggest the three-million mark could be broken as early as this year. According to the latest figures published at the end of June, the German jobless total stood at 3.687 million last month, the lowest level in nearly seven years, equivalent to a jobless rate of 8.8 percent.
The situation on the German labor market is improving not only as a result of the reforms implemented by the previous administration under former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, but also thanks to the robust upturn in the eurozone’s biggest economy. The improvement means that the labor agency looks set to run up a budget surplus of 26 billion euros ($35.9 billion) by 2011, which could be used to finance a reduction in unemployment insurance contributions, Weise said.
“There is room for further reductions in contributions beyond the cut to 3.9 percent already decided,“ he said. “That would have a positive effect for the labor market. A reduction of one percentage point could lead to the creation of 100,000 new jobs.“
Industry federation chief Dieter Hundt said in a radio interview Tuesday that the unemployment contributions should be cut to 3.2 percent.
Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck hopes to siphon off around five billion euros from the surplus to help finance measures to get long-term unemployed into work.

British Floods to Wash $6.2b From Insurers
LONDON, July 25--Britain’s worst floods for 60 years could cost the nation’s insurance sector up to 3.0 billion pounds (4.5 billion euros, $6.2 billion), analysts said on Tuesday. They added that the deluge is also affecting the farming and tourism activity, although the overall hit to the British economy was small, AFP wrote.
“The full extent of the damage is not likely to be known for some time as flood warnings remain in place in some areas,“ the Fitch international credit ratings agency said in a note to clients.
Thousands of homes across central and western England remained without running water and electricity on Tuesday after the recent bursting of river banks in the wake of severe rainfall. Rising floodwaters have struck Tewkesbury, Worcester and Gloucester, along with other towns and villages, while seven severe flood warnings remain in place during Britain’s summer.
The London commuter town of Reading and other areas west of the British capital are under threat, as well as the university city of Oxford.
The downpour comes in the wake of severe flooding last month in mostly northern England, which killed four people.
Total insurance claims from all the summer’s flooding could run as high as 3.0 billion pounds, according to Fitch.

EU Cereal Yields Below Average
079944.jpg
Farmers harvest a field near Audrieu, western France.
BRUSSELS, Belgium, July 25--The European Commission said Tuesday it expected this year’s cereal harvest to be 1.6 percent below a five-year average--but ahead of 2006Ņas drought and heat waves hit yields in eastern Europe and the Black Sea region.
Recent warm weather benefited cooler northern Europe where major producers France, Germany and Spain enjoyed a better growing season thanks to a mild winter and a warm spring. But a heat wave that started in May has cut yields in Romania where wheat will likely come in a fifth below average. Bulgarian maize could be down by as much as 40 percent, AP said.
The 27-nation European Union should produce 276 million metric tons (304 tons) of cereals this year, 1.6 percent or 5 million metric tons (5.5 tons) below the average but 10 million metric tons (11 tons) more than last year.
Overall wheat yields should be up slightly over last year, with the EU crop forecast predicting some 132 million metric tons (145.5 tons.) Yields for durum wheat--used to make pasta--should be above average in Spain, France and Germany and up by 13.5 percent across the EU.
Bulgaria, Romania and Greece, however, will see their soft wheat yields fall by a tenth. EU soft wheat yields are expected to remain unchanged.
“Unseasonably high temperatures of 2 to 4 degrees Celsius (3 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the seasonal average across the growing season certainly had an impact in central and eastern Europe and the Balkan region,“ the EU executive’s arm said. “An extreme heat wave is still under way in Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania where both winter and summer crop yields are being affected.“
Northern Europe’s luck ran out after the good spring with “unseasonably high“ rainfall over the last two months throughout the North Atlantic and North Sea region, which has partly spoiled first harvests in Britain, Denmark, Norway, Belgium and the Netherlands as well as northern parts of France, Germany and Poland.
The EU forecast uses satellite and statistical data to predict the expected harvest for the year assuming that there will be no more “extreme events“ to damage summer crops such as maize, potatoes, sunflowers and sugar beet.

GM Will Invest $6b in Daewoo Unit
DETROIT, USA,
July 25--General Motors plans to invest more than six billion dollars in its Daewoo Automotive Technology subsidiary in South Korea over the next four years, a GM executive said Tuesday. Michael Grimaldi, president and chief executive of GM DAT, which is based near Seoul, said the giant automaker considers Daewoo one of its major export platforms now and in the future.
“Strategically it’s important for GM,“ Grimaldi told a meeting of the Detroit Society of Automotive Analysts, AFP reported.
GM has given DAT the task of engineering new small vehicles in the mini and subcompact class, Grimaldi said. “We’re taking business away from Hyundai and Kia. Our export business is huge. We are GM’s major export base now for many of the developing countries,“ he said.
“We’re investing more resources in both design as well as our engineering organization. We’re looking forward to the introduction of our new mini and small cars that will come to markets around the world in the next several years,“ he said. “We do believe that in combination with General Motors, GM Daewoo is contributing to GM’s growth and going forward will continue to play an increasing strategic role.“ GM Daewoo now operates an engineering center in Inchon, Korea, which will expand to accommodate more than 2,500 engineers and will open a new proving ground and test center near its Seoul area headquarters, Grimaldi added.
The expansion of Daewoo, which was bankrupt at the beginning of the decade, also includes an expansion of the company’s manufacturing base as part of the six-billion-dollar investment for new plants and new products.
Grimaldi, who formerly headed GM’s operation in Canada before moving to Asia, also minimized the significance of recent work stoppages at the company’s manufacturing center. The walkouts were very brief compared with other labor disputes in South Korean auto plants and the company has now signed a new one-year labor pact.

iEconomyCol1
Economic Growth
MOSCOW--The Russian economy expanded 7.8 percent in the first half of the year from the same period of 2006, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Jukov said Tuesday. He told a cabinet meeting that growth came to 8.2 percent in June compared with the same month last year.

Free Trade Talks
WELLINGTON--A first round of talks for a free trade agreement between New Zealand and the six-nation Persian Gulf Cooperation Council opened Wednesday in the New Zealand capital, Trade Minister Phil Goff said.

Maize Import
HARARE--Zimbabwe is to import 200,000 tons of the staple maize from Tanzania to avert widespread food shortages following a poor harvest, state television reported.

Coal Use Surging
BEIJING--Coal consumption by China’s power companies soared nearly 18 percent in the first half of this year from a year ago, a state news agency said Wednesday, despite rising concern about pollution and efforts to promote cleaner energy sources.