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Wed, Oct 24, 2007
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StatoilHydro Continues Developing Anaran Block
Foreign Reserves
In Non-$ Currencies
Will India Miss
The Opportunity?
Mohammad Ali Darvish
Pertamina Eyes Oil Deal
Minister Defiant
2.9m Jobless
Foreign Investment Bylaws Under Review

StatoilHydro Continues Developing Anaran Block
Norway’s StatoilHydro, which has a 75 percent interest in Anaran field said it was still considering plans to develop the Iranian field and that no new decisions had been made on the project.
“We have looked at the development plan (for Anaran), and we are still looking,“ StatoilHydro spokeswoman Kjersti Morstoel told Reuters. “There are no new decisions (on that project).“
Morstoel’s remarks follow announcement by Russian oil firm LUKOIL on Monday that it would soon have to stop work at the Anaran oil project because US sanctions meant it could not invest more than $20 million in the huge development.
“We have discovered the largest deposit in Iran but cannot work there because there is a US State Department ban on foreign investments of third countries for over $20 million,“ Interfax quoted LUKOIL Vice President Leonid Fedun as saying.
The company said later in a statement it had not yet stopped work but would be forced to do so as soon as its investments reached the level of $20 million.
LUKOIL holds 25 percent in the Anaran block, where oil was found at the Azar field in 2005. The companies have said the field’s estimated reserves were two billion barrels of oil.
StatoilHydro became the project’s main shareholder after Norway’s Statoil completed its takeover of oil and gas operations from its peer Norsk Hydro on Oct.1.
LUKOIL, in which US ConocoPhillips owns 20 percent, last year sold 22 percent of its refined products in the United States, where it owns around 2,000 retail stations.
The US Iran Sanctions Act of 1996 calls for sanctions against any person or company making investments of $20 million or more in Iran in any 12-month period to enhance Iran’s ability to develop its petroleum resources. To date no sanctions have been imposed.
“When it comes to StatoilHydro’s current activities in Iran, we will complete our contract obligations in the different projects but we will take all relevant issues into consideration before making any new investment decisions,“ Morstoel said.
In addition to the Anaran block, StatoilHydro is also engaged in developing the huge South Pars gas field in the Iranian sector of the Persian Gulf.

Foreign Reserves
In Non-$ Currencies
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Governor of the Central Bank of Iran has said that CBI has almost completed the groundbreaking initiative to move its external reserves away from the US dollar.
Tahmasb Mazaheri told the US magazine Emerging Market, that diversification is almost 100 percent. “We have done our best to implement this diversification in both our resources, instruments and forex reserves in order to get maximum of our assets,“ he said.
He added that majority of importers of Iranian oil are paying in hard currencies other than the greenback.
The move is because of concerns about weakening of the greenback against euro although political reasons cannot be ruled out.
Close to 85 percent of Iran’s oil transactions are in non-dollar currencies such as euro or yen. Roughly 65 percent of Iran’s crude exports are paid for in euro and 20 percent in yen.
The value of dollar has weakened between 30 and 35 percent compared to other currencies since 2004 thus making trade in dollar uneconomical.
Many countries in the Middle East are also diversifying their reserves away from dollar-denominated assets, recent statistics from US Treasury Department indicate.
The latest data from the US Treasury showed outflows of $163 billion from all forms of US investments in August. While Japan and China led the withdrawals, the new revelation has increased fears of further withdrawals, significantly by Persian Gulf central banks and government-owned funds.
Asian investors sold $52 billion worth of US Treasury bonds in August. While Japan sold US Treasuries worth $23 billion, China and Taiwan sold $14.2 billion and $5 billion, respectively. It is the first time since 1998 that foreigners have sold Treasuries so heavily.
Persian Gulf central banks, which hold only a fraction of their total foreign exchange reserves, continue to maintain more than 70 percent of their reserves in dollar denominated assets.
Qatar recently admitted that it has diversified more than 50 percent of its assets, investment banking sources have confirmed that most Persian Gulf-based sovereign wealth funds have active currency strategies and many of them are diversifying their holdings.

Will India Miss
The Opportunity?
Mohammad Ali Darvish
Iran and Pakistan ended their talks in Islamabad with the finalization of a deal to export gas which will be signed by heads of the two countries.
Following three days of expert-level talks between Iran and Pakistan, ministers and envoys of the two countries started a new round of discussions on Friday in which they finalized the formal agreement. Therefore, as of today, India must independently continue talks to finalize the deal. It must also hold talks on a contract on the gas pipeline passing through Pakistan.
Pakistani newspapers reported on Thursday that India had contacted Pakistani officials to resolve disagreements over the gas pipeline crossing that country. Given that India’s recent efforts to manipulate the negotiations proved futile, that country is about to miss the opportunity to materialize the project and ensure energy supplies in the coming years.
India believed that the project would be uneconomical if that country was excluded whereas the demand of the Pakistani market amounts to 60 million cubic meters. In fact, Pakistan initially insisted on buying 60 million cubic meters of gas per day, but due to Iranian Oil Ministry’s concerns about shortfalls in future production, the amount of gas for both Pakistan and India has been decreased to 30 million cubic meters per day. India, too, in the first round of talks, demanded twice the amount asked for by Pakistan, i.e. 120 million cubic meters per day.
During the negotiations held in Islamabad, Pakistani officials hoped that the ’Peace Pipeline’ project would still remain in tact and be finalized by the three parties. The negotiations were started by India, Pakistan and Iran eleven years ago but due to some unknown reasons, India decided not to attend three rounds of official talks in Islamabad and Tehran in the past few months.
In a letter published in an Indian newspaper, that country’s Oil Ministry informally declared that it would back out of the negotiations unless Pakistan finalized the transit fee.
Some sources believe that India has taken this stance due to its agreements with the US to receive state-of-the art nuclear technology. However it seems that this is not the main reason for India’s refusal to attend the meetings given its considerable demand for energy in the coming years. One of India’s vital policies in the sector is to ensure access to various sources of energy to meet its growing demands.
In spite of the proposed Turkmenistan gas pipeline project and the US nuclear agreement, missing the opportunity to receive 30 million cubic meters gas per day from Iran would be unwise. Certain quarters believe that internal squabbling among Indian parties prompted it to adopt such a stance. The disagreement led to the removal of the oil minister.
The Indian press published reports on corruption in the Oil Ministry which led to the dismissal of the then minister, Mani Shankar Aiyar and his colleagues. Rumors about corruption and bribery created a tense situation which made the new team pursue the talks with caution. In addition, this group is trying to reduce the price of the gas to the minimum so as to protect themselves from being accused of corruption. This made Indian officials reveal the details of the peace pipeline negotiations held in Tehran and the ensuing agreement of the three countries over setting gas price. India claimed that the price has been set at 30 percent below the prices proposed in the previous talks.
India is expected to join the talks in due course when the problems are resolved; it is not in its interest to miss this opportunity.
Although Iran is the world’s second largest gas producer, its reserves are limited. So if India delays, it will definitely lose the opportunity.

Pertamina Eyes Oil Deal
After winning an oil and gas tender in Qatar recently, Indonesia’s state oil and gas company PT Pertamina is now setting its sights on an exploration right in Iran, Jakarta Post reported.
“We are bidding for the Laleh block,“ Pertamina upstream director, Sukusen Soemarinda confirmed Monday, referring to one of 17 oil and gas blocks that the Iranian government currently put on offer.
Iran is the second largest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). “We have partnered with several other firms in this venture, yet we cannot disclose them,“ he added.
Only recently, Pertamina had teamed up with German-based company Wintershall, a subsidiary of German chemical giant BASF, in securing a exploration right on an onshore oil block in Qatar.
Pertamina holds a 25 percent interest in the block, with Wintershall controlling the remaining 75 percent, rendering the company the operator of the block.
Commercial production of the Qatari onshore oil block is not expected to start until the end of 2008 or early 2009.
Economic relations between two OPEC member countries are growing in recent years, especially under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Last Year, Indonesia and Iran reached a $5 billion-deal to develop an oil refinery on densely-populated Java island that would largely target China.
The deal was signed by Elnusa, a unit of Indonesian state energy firm, and National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC).
Under the deal, NOIC will provide 20-25 percent of the equity for the refinery project, Elnusa 20 percent and the rest is to be sought from other sources.

Minister Defiant
Financial terrorism of the US against Iran has failed and the efforts of global powers to weaken Iran’s financial system have reached a deadlock, Minister of Economy and Financial affairs Davoud Danesh-Jafari said at the annual meeting of World Bank and International Monetary Fund which was held in Washington in Oct. 20-22.
He explained that these powers try to spread false information about Iranian economy. “We are sure that they will fail to isolate Iranian financial system,“ he asserted, Fars news agency reported.
Regarding the country’s economic performance, the minister said that Iran has used all means and facilities to achieve its goals in the past three decades.
Danesh-Jafari continued that the great powers have imposed economic sanctions against 55 nations in the past 50 years, adding this policy has lost its effectiveness.
He warned that if the big powers continue to deprive Iran of its financial rights, no country would trust the global financial system, adding that other nations would not remain silent in the face of ruthless behavior of great powers.
Elsewhere in his remarks, the minister said that the economic gap between rich and poor nations is widening. Even the most optimistic economists believe that the current gap would not be removed in near future, he added.
Although quick economic growth rate in the world in 2006 has paved the way for materializing Millennium Development Goals, it seems that the global programs to eradicate poverty have not been useful, he contended.
Danesh-Jafari continued that WB should fulfill it pledges on reducing the poverty in member countries. But, it seems that there is a double standard between the words and deeds of the world body, he concluded.

2.9m Jobless
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Job creation is core priority of the incumbent government.
Latest census revealed that over 2.99 million Iranians are jobless, said deputy governor of Central Bank of Iran’s Economic Studies Department, ISNA reported.
Stressing that job creation is core priority of the incumbent government, Vali Moqaddam-Zanjani pointed out that the unemployment rate is higher among women, youth and the educated.
Another senior official said earlier that the number of university graduates out of job is five percent higher than the national unemployment figures.
Deputy labor minister for job planning and policymaking, Javad Farshbaf told the Persian daily ’Iran’ in May that over 2.6 million Iranians are jobless while 1.5 million are involved in unproductive jobs.
Figures released by Statistics Center suggest that close to 40.5 percent of the population in the working age group (10 years and above) were economically active during spring (March 21-June 21) this year, Fars news agency reported in late August, adding that the employment rate among women of working age was lower compared to that of men in spring.
Moqaddam-Zanjani further cited the target of the Fourth Five-Year Development Plan (2005-2010) based on which unemployment should reach 8.4 percent by 2009.
He recalled that unemployment rate stood at 12.1 percent in the first nine months of the year to March 2007.
Some 900,000 new jobs have been created annually by the government since 2005, the official said, adding that the figure was 580,000 jobs per year during the Third Five-Year Development Plan (2000-2005).
The latest figures released by the Statistics Center indicated that unemployment rate, for the first time in a decade, reached single-digit.
The 9.9 percent unemployment rate which was recorded in summer proves that the government’s job generation plans have been fruitful.

Foreign Investment Bylaws Under Review
Executive bylaws pertaining to investment of foreign investors in Iran’s stock exchanges as well as the Law for Supporting and Encouraging Foreign Investment will be amended, director general of Iran’s Investment, Economic and Technical Aid Organization for foreign investment announced.
Ahmad Jalali told MNA on Tuesday that the bylaws will be modified with an aim of facilitating foreign investment.
The official noted that based on experiences of recent years, sections of the documents which create hurdle to investments would be removed.
Stressing that his organization is working on an amendment to the executive bylaw for the Law for Supporting and Encouraging Foreign Investment, he said that further details would be disclosed in the next two-three months.
Final studies are currently underway to determine which articles encourage and which ones impede foreign investments.
Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance and Bourse Organization are working together on amendment to the bylaw on investment by foreigners in the stock exchange, he said, adding that the new document would be ready in two months.
A report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development indicated that Iran attracted more foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2006 compared to the amount the year earlier.
According to the World Investment Report 2006, released annually by UNCTAD, Iran’s rankings in inward foreign investments went up two places to reach 133 among 141 countries. The country stood 138th in 2004.
Inward FDI grew three-fold to reach $901 million in 2006.
The figure was $306 million in 2005 and $282 million in 2004. In other words, the figures show that policies to woo foreign investors have been successful. The country ranked ninth in the Middle East in attracting foreign investment. Turkey absorbed the biggest volume of foreign investment ($20 billion) in the region.