Most of the incremental demand for oil comes from China, India and the Middle East, where the prices of petrol and diesel are subsidized or capped, leaving drivers with little incentive to cut back.

Back in 2005, in an apparent flight of fancy, analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted a “super-spike“ in the oil price to $105 a barrel.
Last Wednesday October 31, the prediction came as close as it ever has to fulfillment, when the price of West Texas Intermediate reached $94.74 during the New York day and breached $96 after hours, Economist.com said.
But the investment bank’s seers are no longer sure that it will hit their mark soon: the “downside risks“ to the price, they had warned investors the day before, were “gaining momentum“.
The price increases of recent months have stemmed from a marked drop in stockpiles of oil, particularly in America. That indicates that the world is using more than it is producing.
Inventories normally dip in summer, when drivers take to the road, pushing up demand for petrol, and in winter, when demand for heating oil surges. In autumn and spring, by contrast, stocks usually rise.
But so far this year, there has been no sign of the typical seasonal increase--prompting oil traders to worry that when winter sets in, the world will be short of oil. The prospect that the American economy might grow faster than expected thanks to interest-rate cuts has also fuelled concern.
When stocks are low, minor reductions in supply become significant. A recent jump in the price, for example, came after Mexico’s state-owned oil firm announced that it would close down some offshore fields because of bad weather--even though the lost output amounted to less than 1 percent of global production. Fears of a much graver disruption of supplies, due to brewing political tensions in the Middle East, have also helped to push up the price.
In theory, new supplies should soon be coming onstream. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has agreed to raise its output slightly this month.
But it also dismisses oil traders’ anxieties about shortages, insisting that current supplies are adequate. Non-OPEC suppliers, meanwhile, have plans to tap several new fields in the coming months. But on the whole, they are struggling to increase their output, owing to shortages of engineers and equipment, and to the concomitant rise in development costs.
Both BP and Shell, for example, reported recently that they produced less oil in the third quarter of this year than they did in the second.
A price this high should also temper demand for oil. Motorists’ thirst for fuel does indeed seem to be faltering in rich countries. But as Francisco Blanch of Merrill Lynch notes, most of the incremental demand for oil comes from China, India and the Middle East, where the prices of petrol and diesel are subsidized or capped, leaving drivers with little incentive to cut back.
Until the governments concerned start making consumers pay the market price, appetite for oil is likely to remain strong. There are signs of this: on Wednesday the Chinese government raised the price of fuel for the first time this year.
The likeliest scenario is that a gradual increase in supply and a slight mellowing of demand will eventually bring some relief. Goldman Sachs, for one, is predicting a price of $80 a barrel by April next year. But between now and then, its analysts warn, that spike may yet get sharper.

A general consensus obtained from the participants of the two-day international symposium in Pakistan on “Sindh Coal (Lignite) Mining: Challenges and Success“ was that a realistic tariff for Thar coal is 9 to 10 cents. On conclusion, the symposium on Nov. 2 urged for declaring a realistic and flexible coal tariff based on original cost of different coalfields.
The symposium released a package of a dozen of recommendations on Nov. 3 after holding two full day proceedings on Nov. 1 and Nov. 2 in which 22 presentations were made by the Pakistani and international experts, Oil.com said.
It called upon the federal government agencies--Nepra, PPIB, Wapda--to realize development and gainful exploitation of coal energy is not only in interest of Sindh but for entire Pakistan.
All these federal agencies were reminded that foreign and local investment was made in private power projects after 1994 only when an up-front tariff structure was set in place. Therefore, it is imperative to announce a tentative upfront tariff structure for coal-fired power projects.
Another recommendation urges the Private Power Investment Board (PPIB) to authorize Sindh government for issuing licences for setting up of 200 megawatts coal-based power projects.
Under present policy, the provinces have been allowed to set up 50 megawatts of power stations based on waterfalls and run of canals. But the participants of the symposium felt that a 50-megawatt coal-fired power project is not feasible.
The Sindh government has been urged to approach the adviser on energy for preparation of an up-front lignite tariff and a tariff schedule.
The adviser should be asked to convene immediately a meeting of the Technical Committee of the Task Force on Thar Coal as instructed by President Mushsrraf in a recent meeting.
The representatives of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry who participated in the symposium suggested the KESC and Wapda should undertake to purchase electricity from the private coal-fired power projects.
While the federal and Sindh governments have been asked to facilitate and accelerate coal mining in the province and particularly in Thar a suggestion has been made to commence water exploration work in Thar.
Foreign participants have proposed underground gasification to be a better alternate now being practiced in many countries. The symposium recommended for quick implementation of this process.
A reference has been made to an observation of a German expert Dr Ing. Gotz V. Justus who disclosed that 175 billion tons of coal reserves in Thar represent the biggest coal reserve in Asia. He found Thar lignite better in quality than that of lignite in Germany and many other states where it is used to generate electricity.
The Nepra acting chairman in his presentation disclosed that almost 16 percent of public sector development program was being used as subsidy for the electricity distribution companies. The oil prices kept on fluctuating affecting production.

Hydrogen-powered cars could one day store fuel safely and efficiently using polymers filed with nanoscopic holes.
Researchers have achieved a new record for absorbing hydrogen using such ’nanoporous’ polymers. Frantisek Svec at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, California, and Jean FrEchet, at the University of California in Berkeley, both in the US, revealed the feat at the International Congress of Nanotechnology, held in San Francisco between October 30 and November 2, NewScientist.com reported.
Hydrogen is tipped as a fuel of the future, as it can by used to generate electricity cleanly, generating only water as waste. However, it must normally be stored as a liquid, under extreme pressure, which makes it expensive to process and dangerous to handle.
So the hunt is on to find a storage medium that will absorb hydrogen readily and could, in future, be used to transport it cheaply and safely. This could be used inside a vehicle’s fuel tank and within containers used to transport hydrogen around the country.
Researchera have set a target of finding materials capable of holding enough hydrogen to make up 6 percent of its own total mass by 2010. But these must also release hydrogen rapidly if it is to be used to refuel vehicles.
Svec and FrEchet created nanoporous polymers by heating and chemically treating styrene--an abundant hydrocarbon used to manufacture some plastics. The resulting material has an abundance of pores, each less than 2 nanometers in diameter.
Hydrogen atoms naturally stick to the polymer, when cooled to around 77 Kelvin (-196 C), by forming surface bonds. This allows them to pack tightly inside the material’s pores. The material then releases the hydrogen when the temperature is raised or the pressure is reduced.
Svec and Frechet found that at roughly 40 times atmospheric pressure, the nanoporous polymers contained 3.8 percent hydrogen. And, at atmospheric pressure, they contained 1.5 percent hydrogen. It is the best achieved so far for such a material, and the team is working on improving the technique.
The researchers add that nanoporous polymers should also be far cheaper to produce than other materials currently being considered, such as carbon nanotubes, as they can be made simply using existing manufacturing techniques.
Neil McKeown, a researcher at the University of Cardiff, UK, who is also experimenting with polymer storage mediums, says they hold great promise for the future. “What is good about polymers is that you can tweak their chemistry to modify their absorption,“ he told New Scientist.

Above the atmosphere, a solar cell receives about 40 times more energy per year than an equivalent site on the ground.

At some point before 2050, satellites collecting solar power and beaming it back to Earth will become a primary energy source, streaming terawatts of electricity continuously from space. That’s if you believe a recent report from the Pentagon’s Space Office, which says confidently that we will see “a basic proof-of-concept within 4-6 years and a substantial power demonstration as early as 2017-2020“.
It’s obvious in some ways: above the atmosphere, a solar cell receives about 40 times more energy per year than an equivalent site on the ground, due to the absence of atmospheric scattering and seasonal or nightly reductions in light, according to Guardian.
Researchers suggest that an orbiting spacecraft with solar panel arrays would be comparable to current ground-based installations spanning hectares and, eventually, a few square kilometers. Then that energy can be sent to the ground--using a giant laser or microwave beam.
The report, Space Based Solar Power suggests optimistically that one application will be the beaming of “energy aid“ via satellite into conflict and disaster zones, minimizing the human cost of resource wars and catastrophic events caused by global warming.
“The technology has been in development for a while,“ says Joseph Rouge, associate director of the space office. “The truly hard and expensive part is going to be getting it into orbit. We’ll need regular launches and on-orbit robotic assembly systems. It’s a $10 billion program, but by 2050 it could deliver 10 percent of America’s power needs.“
The space office sees energy supply as one of strategic importance as oil supplies dwindle; according to a report by Germany’s Energy Watch Group published last week, “peak oil“ output occurred last year, and will fall by 7 percent annually to half its present levels by 2030. The space office notes that all remaining oil resources are estimated to contain 250 terawatt-years of energy; but that a one-kilometer wide band in geosynchronous orbit receives about 212 TW-years of energy each year.
The first units to go up will generate between 10MW and 25MW of continuous power, enough for a town of 25,000 people. If the energy is transmitted by microwave, a surface array one-tenth of a square kilometer in size will be needed to pick it up. Larger beams will require larger collector arrays. Unlike photovoltaic cells, these antenna arrays are practically transparent, so crops could be planted under them.
“If a 2.45 GHz beam drifted off its target and ended up over a town, the effect would be negligible,“ says Lt Col Damphousse of the space office. “By the time the microwave reaches the surface it has spread out considerably. The power density is one-sixth that of the noonday sun.“
The beam is most powerful near its source, and although at 25,000 miles up it would not pose a risk to astronauts in the International Space Station, it could be turned against communication or observation satellites in geostationary orbit. “Space Traffic Control would make sure the satellite is not tampered with before launch,“ says Damphousse. “They would also ensure the spacecraft do not interfere with each other.“
Leopold Summerer, head of the Advanced Concepts Team at the European Space Agency, thinks laser beams will be better than microwaves due to their higher transmission frequencies and narrower apertures.
His department has been coordinating exploratory discussions between the big European energy suppliers and aerospace companies. “By the time space solar power is ready there will already be large-scale terrestrial solar in place,“ Summerer says.
“The same panels could be used to receive energy from a laser. You could save a lot of money on energy storage by beaming at night and throughout the year.“
The various platforms under consideration will not be competitive until the cost of space flight goes down. Nasa’s budget has been shrunk and Japanese agency JAXA has suffered technical setbacks. The International Space Station barely manages to justify its running costs. As of today, none of the agencies is funding a space solar power launch.
Solar power beaming could be much more profitable than space tourism. It has the potential to drive down launch costs, thereby making a number of other missions practicable.
Over the past 40 years, microwave and laser power transmission systems have been tested successfully in Europe, the US and Japan. Unmanned aircraft and lunar rovers receiving power from a remote beam are proven applications.
The Japanese have tested reactions in the ionosphere to microwaves at the frequencies used for space solar power, and the results were positive. The only remaining issue is to test a large-scale system.

To a country like China, which is thirsty for energy and power and determined to take the road of sustainable development, promoting the development of wind power could be a win-win strategy for all.
On Nov. 1, a report jointly released by the Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association, Greenpeace and Global Wind Energy Council, brought closer the realization of wind power development, China Daily reported.
The report predicts that with greater policy support the country could become one of the world’s top three wind energy markets in about a decade. China’s installed wind power capacity could reach 122 Gigawatts by 2020, equivalent to the capacity of five Three Gorges Dams.
In fact, the Chinese government had earlier raised its 2010 target to 8,000 Megawatts (MW) from 5,000 MW with the idea of accelerating the development of the renewable energy industry.
Given the country’s heavy reliance on coal, the cheapest and dirtiest source of energy, the development of renewable and clean energy is the only rational choice if it intends to diversify its energy supply and contribute to international efforts to check global warming.
Although its per capita greenhouse gas emissions are lower than the world’s average as well as developed countries like the United States and Australia, China has been active in pushing for global efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions and is willing to shoulder its due responsibility.
It has already committed that non-fossil fuels will account for 30 percent of China’s energy consumption by 2050, compared with 10 percent today.
To this end, the development of wind power should be given a bigger role, since it is one of the few types of ideal
energy--renewable, clean and competitive with rapid implementation.
While wind power accounts for 5.7 percent of global power generation now, it amounts to less than 1 percent in China.
The government should therefore make it an obligation for places abundant in wind power to give top priority to its development.
Sufficient funding and favorable policies, including tax rebates, are necessary to encourage business expansion in this field.
Since China is relatively weak in wind power technology, it should not only promote technological innovation at home, but also look for international cooperation and borrow experience.