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Wed, May 21, 2008

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Rice Shortage Unreal
By Ghanbar Naderi
Russia Rail Link Planned
Gov’t to Stabilize Prices
Petrochemical Industry Thriving
Despite Illegal Sanctions
Joint Belarus Committee Convenes
Japan Can Keep Oilfield Share

Rice Shortage Unreal
By Ghanbar Naderi
In the early 1990s, authorities in the Greek sector of Cyprus announced that potato prices would go up by a few cents in the summer to generate more tax revenues for the central government.
Given the experiences of Iran, the assumption was that this would be a game in which the Greek Cypriots (consumers) would be at the receiving end.
However, Cyprus is a very small island with a population of less than a million, But they are united in times of crisis and have long-established traditional/cultural bonds.
For that reason, the Cypriot consumers made it abundantly clear after the official announcement that despite their crave for mashed potatoes, they would stand united and would never buy the product unless the government backed off from its controversial plan to hike prices.
As a consequence, potato crops in that summer failed to find domestic customers and most went rotten, so much so that the potato industry and many independent farmers went bankrupt within a matter of weeks.
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To stabilize rice prices, the government imported more rice and prosecuted hoarders who had tried to take advantage of the situation.
Farming industry and labor union representatives kept appearing on TV shows and news programs to protest the government’s decision, urging the authorities to take back their words as one of the island’s most strategic industries was on the verge of collapse all because the government had wished to collect more tax.
At last, the government swallowed its pride and backed off from its controversial decision--although the potato industry had already paid a hefty price for this. Still, the potato trade was back to normal within days and once again people started to cook cheap mashed potatoes.
Now what if the Iranian government, just like its Greek Cypriot counterpart, had decided to announce that potato prices would go up by a few rials in the summer because of the global potato crisis? Will the Iranian consumers react in an orderly manner just like their Greek Cypriot counterparts? The answer, sadly enough, is no, just as was recently the case when there was an alleged shortage of rice.
Just as the news of the global rice crisis hit the Iranian shores, all of a sudden there was no rice in the market at all--the very same market in which even carpet showrooms, real estate agencies and mini cab services had sacks of rice and were desperate to sell them in installments and with generous discounts!
As it turned out, many people had already panicked and bought as much rice as they could possibly afford. Also, many traders, shops and small-time crooks had hoarded the product to sell it later at exorbitant prices. Funny how in the midst of all this disarray, some still had the nerve to blame the government for the shortage--if ever there was any!
All things considered, consumers (households, firms, restaurants, shops et al) and profiteers were responsible for the recent rice shortages in the country and it was their irrational behavior (consumer behavior) which made matters worse.
They also failed to take note of the fact that they were the ones that could have easily determined market prices and kept the situation under control.
But instead they panicked and rushed to buy, pushing prices further up for no apparent reason.
Under the circumstances, it is unfair to blame the government for the rice price hikes. In fact, the government imported more rice and prosecuted hoarders who had tried to take advantage of the situation.
Therefore, it is safe to conclude that there is no such thing as rice or food crisis in Iran and also nothing is really wrong with the government’s economic policies and plans (as long as consumers cooperate) and/or the economy (even though it still has a traditional structure and is in dire need of reform).

Russia Rail Link Planned
A railroad linking Russia and Iran via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan will open in December 2011, a top Turkmen executive told Reuters.
The link, which will be constructed by the two former Soviet states, along with Iran, will cover 900 km and will allow travel and goods transportation between Europe and the Persian Gulf in one continuous stretch for the first time ever.
“Turkmenistan adheres to the principle of multiplicity in the transport of its oil and gas resources to world markets,“ Gurbanmyrat Begmuradov, chairman of Turkmenistan’s state-owned Halkbank, said at the annual meeting of the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development in Kiev.
The line, from the Kazakh city of Uzen to the northern Iranian city of Gorgan via Turkmenistan, will start transporting up to five million tons of goods per year, Begmuradov told a panel. “In the long term, this figure is expected to rise to 10-12 million tons annually,“ he added.
Russia is already connected to Kazakhstan by rail.

Gov’t to Stabilize Prices
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The government will stabilize prices of commodities in the market, said First Vice President Parviz Davoudi.
“We have to take into account global prices of certain goods in this connection,“ he said.
Speaking on the sidelines of a ceremony to inaugurate the mass production line of Tondar 90 engine at Megamotor Factory, he pointed out that the major parts of the engine are being manufactured in the country, according to IRNA.
Commending Iranian engineers for their capabilities, he added that the government will help the company improve its products both in terms of quality and quantity.
The production line has the capacity to produce 300,000 engines for Tondar 90 automobiles per annum.
Davoudi stated that the price of various metals rose by 50 to 100 percent in the global markets and this will have a great impact on the country’s steel and metal parts production.
“The government will try its best to minimize the effects of inflation on the vulnerable strata of the society,“ he noted.
Referring to the low price of Tondar 90 as an advantage, Davoudi hoped that young people will take interest in the this model of car.

Petrochemical Industry Thriving
Despite Illegal Sanctions
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Iran has signed joint venture agreements worth more than $4.5 billion with Venezuelan, Indonesian, Indian and Omani firms for petrochemical projects to be implemented until 2010.
Illegal international sanctions on Iran are not hurting the bid to expand petrochemical production since investors are attracted by the Islamic Republic’s vast reserves of cheap gas feedstock and security, observed a senior official.
“Our assessment is that sanctions have not had an impact on the petrochemical sector and the reason is that our huge gas reserves give us a special advantage in the region,“ said Gholamhossein Nejabat, deputy oil minister and the head of the state-owned National Petrochemical Company (NPC).
He said that the petrochemical industry was increasingly relying on gas rather than oil as its feedstock given that the price of the latter has soared to record levels.
“Therefore, world’s growing demand for hydrocarbons and petrochemical products coupled with the desire of foreign companies not to be left out of the industry in Iran will be good for the time to come,“ he told IRNA.
Asked why Europeans were playing a minor role, Nejabat said that even when European firms earlier appeared to have an active role in the petrochemical industry, their role was mostly limited to selling technology or equipment, not acting as partners.
“Even in the past, European companies did not make huge investments that we can claim that their participation has now dwindled,“ he said, adding that European firms were still licensing technology to NPC.
The company is investing $13.3 billion in 24 projects based on the targets of the Fourth Five-Year Economic Development Plan which runs to 2010, he said, adding that investment will grow to $15.5 billion in 33 projects over the next five-year plan.
The industry is planning to raise its output from 24 million tons in the Iranian year March 2008-08, to some 35 million tons by March 2009.
Nejabat recalled that Iran has signed joint venture agreements worth more than $4.5 billion with Venezuelan, Indonesian, Indian and Omani firms for petrochemical projects to be implemented until 2010.
Following US pressure on companies to stop business with Tehran, many western companies decided to do a balancing act. They tried to maintain their presence in the country without getting into big deals that could endanger their interests in the US.
However after they witnessed that their absence from major deals provided Chinese and Indian companies with excellent opportunities to sign an increasing number of energy deals and earn billions of dollars, many western firms have now lost their reluctance to invest or expand operations in Iran.
Analysts believe that participation of foreign companies from 30 countries in the recent International Petrochemical Confab in Tehran proved their opposition to US sanctions. Iranian officials also share this view.

Joint Belarus Committee Convenes
Iran-Belarus Industry and Mines Committee co-chaired by Iran’s minister of industries and mines and his Belarus counterpart opened its second meeting in Minsk, Belarus, on Tuesday.
At the meeting, Ali-Akbar Mehrabian also conveyed a message from President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko.
Mehrabian is visiting Belarus at the invitation of Belarusian Minister of Industry Anatoliy Ruteskiy.
Iranian and Belarus officials are discussing the implementation of agreements signed in the first Iran-Belarus Industry and Mines Committee held in Tehran, IRNA reported.
Iran Khodro’s cooperation with Belarusian company Unison on producing ’Samand’ cars is on the agenda of the meeting.
At the meeting, the two sides will seek to reach agreements on standards, sales of agricultural machinery, establishment of cement factory and thermal power plant in Belarus, export of medical equipment and cooperation on geology.
Iran’s Industry and Mines Ministry has been expanding cooperation in the industrial sector with Egypt, Venezuela and Syria.

Japan Can Keep Oilfield Share
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Japan’s Inpex Company can keep its 10 percent share in Iran’s Azadegan oilfield, Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari said.
“Inpex Holding Incorporation has shown interest in continuing cooperation with Iran. Therefore, the company can maintain its share in Azadegan oilfield as we have no plans to change this share at present,“ the minister told Presstv Monday.
Media reports indicated that Inpex directors are in Tehran to discuss the issue of regaining their 10 percent share in the development of the oilfield with Iranian officials.
In 2004, the Japanese company agreed to invest in a two-billion-dollar project to develop the oilfield.
Iran cut its share from 75 to 10 percent in 2006 because the company bowed to US pressure and delayed in fulfilling its contract obligations.
Located 80 km west of Iran’s southern city of Ahvaz, Azadegan has proven oil reserves of 33 billion barrels and the capacity is predicted to increase to 40 billion barrels.

60,000 Quick Return Projects
Labor Minister Mohammad Jahromi said 60,000 quick return projects have been introduced to banks for loans, and if approved, they could create over 3 million new jobs across the nation.

Serbia Ties
Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki called for continuation of
consultation with Serbia in different fields, noting that the two countries have great potentials for expansion of cooperation.

EconomyCol2
Iran Oil Hit $114
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Iran’s crude oil climbed to $114.37 a barrel on Friday, reported National Iranian Oil Company’s International Affairs Department.
According to PIN, the price of Iran’s crude stood at $114.37 a barrel on Friday, May 16. The daily oil price is always published with a 48-hour delay.
The price of OPEC basket of thirteen crudes also neared an all-time record high on Friday and climbed to $119.27 a barrel, compared with $118.95 the day before, according to OPEC Secretariat calculations.
OPEC’s daily basket price is also always published with a 24-hour delay and serves as the reference price for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Ali Al-Nuaimi, said his country had increased oil production by 300,000 barrels per day from May 10 in response to orders from customers, mostly from the United States, and would pump 9.45 million barrels per day in June.
However, Nuaimi reiterated OPEC’s long-standing view that global oil supply was balanced with demand and that market fundamentals were sound. Iran, another major producer, said this week that an output hike by OPEC as requested by the United States would not affect prices.
The new OPEC Reference Basket (ORB), implemented as of September 10, 2007, currently comprises of Saharan Blend (Algeria), Girassol (Angola), Minas (Indonesia), Iran Heavy (Islamic Republic of Iran), Basra Light (Iraq), Kuwait Export (Kuwait), Es Sider (Libya), Bonny Light (Nigeria), Qatar Marine (Qatar), Arab Light (Saudi Arabia), Murban (UAE) and BCF 17 (Venezuela).
OPEC accounts for about 40 percent of the world’s oil production and currently its member states produce an average of 32 million barrels per day.

Target-Oriented Subsidies By 2010
All state subsidies, which add up to 800,000 billion rials, will be channeled to target groups by the end of the Fourth Five-Year Economic Development Plan (2005-2010), declared a member of Majlis Planning and Budget Commission, Morteza Tamaddon. He said that paying cash subsidies is an alternative, adding that in view of the sensitivity of the issue, the plan has not been implemented, Fars News Agency reported.
The lawmaker said that the government would probably make subsidies target oriented either abruptly or gradually, adding the plan should go into effect by March 2010. “Observing justice is most important in paying cash subsidies,“ he noted.
The lawmaker added that the plan should be in the interest of all strata of the society, adding about 50 percent of the income groups, which are entitled to receive cash subsidies, have been identified until now. He put the number of these people at 35 million.
Gasoline, like many other essential products, is subsidized and costs about 10 cents a liter. There is consequently huge demand, but limited supply. With that price at pumps, it does not make economic sense to build refineries. So Iran has managed to become an oil-rich nation with chronic petrol shortages.

Major Petrochem Ventures Underway
Iran and China are negotiating a joint venture to construct a big olefin plant in the energy-rich Asalouyeh region, Bushehr province, reported Mehr News Agency.
Last year Ariyasasol olefin complex, a joint Iran-South Africa venture, went into operation at an investment of $1.3 billion producing a million tons of ethylene annually.
In addition, Laleh Petrochemical Complex in Mahshahr Special Economic Zone is the other foreign joint-investment project undertaken with Saudi Arabian Sabic, producing 300,000 tons of light polyethylene.
German Hanza-Chemistry and Swedish Comator also established Karoon Petrochemical Complex to produce isocyanides while Iran and Venezuela are jointly establishing two complexes in each country to produce 1.65 million tons of methanol a year.
Iran’s National Petrochemical Company (NPC) has signed a contract with an Indian company to produce a million tons of urea annually and the company recently awarded a deal to Indonesia to produce a million tons of urea fertilizer.
NPC has planned for the construction of a heavy propylene production unit with the daily output capacity of 300,000 tons in the Philippines to meet Thai and Philippines markets demands.
Construction of Hormuz petrochemical complex in Asalouyeh in cooperation with an Omani company is the other joint investment in this sector. In view of sanctions and political pressures against Iran, joint activities with foreign countries are on the way and these companies are showing eagerness to invest in Iran’s petrochemical industry.

IPI Pipeline Talks Next Week
Iranian and Pakistani officials are slated to meet in Tehran on May 26 to hold another round of talks on the proposed $7.4 billion gas pipeline which is due to take Iran’s rich energy reserves to India via Pakistan, Fars News Agency reported.
A senior official in Pakistan’s petroleum ministry said that the two sides have proposed to hold talks on IPI pipeline deal so that the final arrangements could be made on signing of Gas Sales Purchase Agreement (GSPA).
He added that signing of GSPA on gas pipeline deal could be delayed due to uncertainty following the resignation of his country’s petroleum minister Khawaja Asif.
The official further stated that Iran and Pakistan were supposed to sign the GSPA on IPI without any other round of talks and during the Iranian president’s visit to Pakistan on April 28. The two sides also agreed to sign a deal within 45 days, he added.
He said that the upcoming talks could be for making arrangements for signing the GSPA on IPI that would be signed by petroleum secretaries, ministers and heads of states of two countries.
Meanwhile, the official recalled that Iran and Pakistan had finalized the GSPA on IPI pipeline deal during the caretaker government’s tenure and that the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Pakistani cabinet approved the draft of the GSPA.
He said that Asian Development Bank, Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL) and Interstate Gas Company Limited could work in a JV to materialize the project, adding that Indian petroleum minister Murli Deora during talks with Pakistani officials on pipeline transit fee issues had conveyed that GAIL was interested in the project.
The official said that ECC has authorized Interstate Gas Company Limited (IGCL) to sign the agreement with Iranian and Pakistani governments and convert IGCL into a corporation.
He pointed out that Asian Bank country director has informed Islamabad government of his bank’s readiness to finance the project.

Etisalat May Bid for Telecom License
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The Iranian government is in talks with Etisalat on a bid for the country’s third telecom license and the possible sale of a controlling stake in the state-owned Mobile Communications Company of Iran (Hamrah-e Avval), a company official said.
Iran will hold the auction in the second half of 2008, Middle East Economic Digest said, citing Jamal Al-Jarwan from Etisalat International Investments of the United Arab Emirates.
Etisalat would prefer a new phone license rather than a stake in the existing Iranian operator because ’things are much easier to handle’, MEED reported, citing Etisalat Chairman Mohammad Hassan Omran.
Emirates Telecommunications Corporation, also known as Etisalat, is the incumbent telecommunications carrier and Internet Service Provider in the United Arab Emirates. Founded in 1976, it was the sole telecommunications services provider in the UAE until the arrival of Du in February 2007.
Etisalat provides a wide range of fixed and wireless telecommunications services, as well as cable TV services. As of January 2008, Etisalat is thought to operate over 33 million subscribers in 15 countries, following a spending spree of 30 billion UAE dirham in international acquisitions and investments, largely due to the loss of its virtual monopoly in the United Arab Emirates.
The telecom’s wireless services coverage is claimed to reach 97 percent of UAE’s territory.

Germany Tightens Truck Sale Rules
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Germany has set stricter rules for selling trucks to Iran and Syria under the pretext that they may use such vehicles to launch missiles!
According to a ruling by Angela Merkel’s government on Monday, Germany claimed that Iran and Syria might use the heavy trucks for launching short- and medium-range rockets.
The Merkel administration claims that ’both countries use ordinary civilian vehicles for their mobile military rocket programs’, Bloomberg reported.
German truck-makers like MAN AG and Daimler AG, which have sales offices in Iran, must now obtain permits to export 20,000 kilograms vehicles with three or more axles to Iran or Syria.