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Opposition Mounts to Iraq-US Pact
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An Iraqi soldier watches the crowds gathered for a protest following Friday noon prayers in the impoverished Sadr City district of eastern Baghdad, on May 30.
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Tens of thousands rallied in several Iraqi cities Friday against a proposed US-Iraqi security agreement, raising doubts that negotiators can meet a July target to finalize a pact to keep US troops in Iraq after the current UN mandate expires.
Although US officials insist they are not seeking permanent bases, suspicion runs deep among many Iraqis that the Americans want to keep at least some troops in the country for many years, AP reported.
“We denounce the government’s intentions to sign a long-term agreement with the occupying forces,“ Asaad Al-Nassiri, a sheik loyal to anti-American cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr, said during a sermon in Kufa. “Our army will be under their control in this agreement, and this will lead to them having permanent bases in Iraq.“
US President George Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki signed a statement last December on the future of US-Iraqi relations, saying they planned to finalize a new security agreement by July 31--in time for Iraq’s parliament to approve the deal before a UN mandate expires at the end of the year.
US and Iraqi officials began negotiations in March on a blueprint for the long-term security agreement and a second deal, to establish the legal basis for US troops to remain in the country after the UN mandate runs out.
Rallies in Baghdad and several other Iraqi cities followed Friday prayer services and were the first in wake of a call by Al-Sadr for weekly protests against the deal, even though few details of the talks have been released.
Al-Qaeda Fighters Killed
Iraqi security forces shot dead at least 11 suspected Al-Qaeda operatives who were hiding in a sheep truck near the northern city of Tikrit on Friday, the Defense Ministry told AFP.
The men were killed in fighting at a checkpoint between ousted dictator Saddam Hussein’s hometown of Tikrit and Baiji, ministry spokesman Major General Mohammed Al-Askari said.
Askari said the truck was believed to be fleeing the main northern Iraqi city of Mosul, where the Iraqi army has been conducting a large-scale crackdown on Al-Qaeda since May 14.
Refugees Return
Iraq wants its refugees to return home and those who do can expect “privileges“, Maliki said during a visit to Sweden on Friday.
“We hope that our children, especially the experts, who are obliged to emigrate, would return,“ he told reporters at a press conference with Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, AFP said.
“We have statistics that say that tens of thousands of refugees wish to return. We welcome them, we will give them privileges,“ added Maliki the day after he co-hosted a large international conference on Iraq in Stockholm.
The Iraqi government has “a clear strategy“ and has earmarked funds “so as to take the necessary preparations for a voluntary return“ of refugees, he said.
He stressed that the returns would take place “especially when security improves and when work opportunities are increased.“
Sweden announced plans Friday to re-open its Baghdad embassy later this year. Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt made the announcement in Stockholm after meeting with Maliki Friday, UPI reported.
The embassy is to open just outside the heavily armed Green Zone, near the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, the Swedish news agency said. At present, Swedish ambassador Niclas Trouve lives in Jordan’s capital city of Amman but frequently travels to Baghdad for work.
Jordan to Appoint Envoy
Jordan will soon appoint a new ambassador for neighboring Iraq, Jordan Minister of State for Information Nasser Judeh said on Friday.
The government will designate an ambassador “in the coming days to start his work at the Jordanian embassy in Baghdad and head the Jordanian diplomatic mission,“ Judeh was quoted as saying by the state-run Petra news agency.
A senior US official told reporters in Stockholm that Jordan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain were taking steps toward establishing a diplomatic presence in Iraq.
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Embattled Olmert’s Party Eyes Succession
With embattled Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert up against the ropes, members of his Kadima party are already jockeying for position in anticipation of his downfall and possible early elections.
“The Kadima party primary began, even if nobody declared this officially. Even the prime minister realizes that he cannot prevent it from taking place soon,“ the top-selling Yediot Aharonot wrote in an editorial.
Olmert suffered a stinging one-two blow when his deputy challenged his leadership right after a key ally demanded he quit over a corruption scandal, AFP said.
The prime minister, who flies to Washington on Monday for a three-day visit and a meeting with Bush, has asked Kadima MPs not to do anything until his return, Israeli media said.
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Jordan, France Sign Nuclear Deal
Jordan and France signed an agreement on Friday to help the Arab kingdom develop its nuclear energy program.
According to AP, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and his Jordanian counterpart, Salaheddine Al-Bashir, announced the deal in Amman.
The agreement calls on France to help create nuclear reactors to be used for electricity production and desalination of sea water.
France will also train Jordanian nuclear scientists and help in uranium extraction, according to the agreement. Uranium is abundant in the desert country.
Jordanian Nuclear Energy Commissioner Khaled Toukan told reporters that “an executive protocol“ will be signed between the two nation’s within a month, to follow up Friday’s agreement.
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Pak Corps Reportedly
Helping Taliban, Al-Qadea
A US-backed paramilitary force in Pakistan’s lawless border area may be aiding Taliban fighters, according to American officials who say the support may cause Congress to freeze some security funds for Islamabad.
Signs that Pakistan’s Frontier Corps is helping Taliban and Al-Qaeda-linked groups cross into Afghanistan only exacerbates US frustration over Pakistan’s plans to secure peace deals with fighters in that region, where Osama bin Laden is thought to hide, according to Reuters. “We cannot rely on Pakistan to stop the traffic of terrorists crossing that border despite the strong statements of its leaders,“ said Sen. Carl Levin, the Michigan Democrat who chairs the US Senate’s committee on armed forces.
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A Pakistani paramilitary soldier stands guard on the roadside in the lawless area of Dara Adam Khel, in the North West Frontier Province near Peshawar.
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Levin and some US defense officials said Taliban fighters may also be getting assistance from Pakistan’s army.
“If that’s our intelligence assessment, then there’s a real question as to whether or not we should be putting money into strengthening the Frontier Corps on the Pakistan side because if anything there’s some evidence that the Pakistan army is providing support to the Taliban,“ Levin told reporters after visiting Afghanistan and Pakistan this week.
The United States set up a program last year to train and equip the paramilitary Frontier Corps, which is recruited from the tribal areas to counter Islamist militants.
Under the program, Washington planned to supply equipment like helmets and flak vests to the Frontier Corps, but would not provide weapons or ammunition, the Pentagon said last year.
US Army trainers would instruct the paramilitary force and Washington allocated $52.6 million for the program last year.
A defense spending authorization bill for the 2009 fiscal year, which starts October 1, includes $75 million for Frontier Corps training, but Levin said questions about the force could lead him to reconsider those funds.
Uncertainty about the Frontier Corps’ allegiances and the security impact of peace deals Pakistan strikes with Al-Qaeda-linked groups in its tribal areas is raising worry among US commanders and defense officials.
Defense Ties Close
Defense ties between Pakistan the United States will remain strong through the next administration despite tough talk from US presidential candidates looking to review the relationship, a top Pakistan military official said on Saturday.
Tariq Majeed, Pakistan’s chairman of Pakistan’s joint chiefs of staff committee, told Reuters on the sidelines of a security conference that the common goal of fighting terrorism will be the basis of the relationship between the two countries.
Sharif Party Raps Bush
A key political party has rapped US President George W. Bush for expressing support for Pakistan’s increasingly beleaguered president.
Bush telephoned President Pervez Musharraf on Friday and backed his ``continuing role’’ in promoting Pakistan’s ties with the United States, AP reported.
Sadiqul Farooq, a spokesman for the party of Nawaz Sharif, whose government fell to Musharraf’s 1999 coup, said Saturday that Bush should have told Musharraf to quit and that his party did not regard the call as friendly or pro-democratic.
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Treaty on Cluster Bombs
Diplomats from 111 nations formally adopted a landmark treaty banning cluster bombs on Friday while the biggest makers and users of cluster bombs--the United States, Russia, China, Israel, India and Pakistan--abandoned the move.
Twelve days of negotiations ended Friday after diplomats from scores of nations delivered speeches embracing the landmark accord. It requires signatories not to use cluster bombs, to destroy existing stockpiles within eight years, and to fund programs that clear old battlefields of dud bombs, AP reported.
The treaty will ensure that thousands of people in the future will be saved from the horrific injuries and deaths caused by cluster bombs during the past 60-years.
Washington this week dismissed the prospect that the treaty would alter US policy.
Cluster bombs have been used in conflicts worldwide, from Vietnam to Iraq, to crush enemy forces by laying a carpet of dozens to hundreds of explosions with a single bomb, shell or rocket.
The artillery-fired M85 cluster bomb killed 200 civilians when used in the Lebanon by Israel in 2006. Helicopter-launched M73s were used by the US in the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
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Public Support Fading
Public support for the European Union in Turkey has been eroding due to the “double standards“ over the country’s membership bid, the
Turkish prime minister re-issued a warning.
Portfolio Request
Hezbollah MP Mohammad Raad said the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc has forwarded its requests regarding the number of ministers in the new government.
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Pakistan Future in the Balance
By Pir-Mohammad Mollazehi
President Pervez Musharraf is at the heart of the political crisis in Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif, a former prime minister and head of Pakistan Muslim League (N), has called for impeachment of Musharraf. In the meantime, acting chairman of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Asif Ali Zardari has said that if Musharraf does not give up wielding power voluntarily, Pakistan will encounter a big political crisis and he will be tried after his ouster. The meeting between Army Chief General Ashfaq Kiyani and Musharraf has been interpreted in two ways. Musharraf has said that it was just another routine meeting while the opposition claim that Kiyani told Musharraf that if he decides to dissolve parliament and get rid of the government, he will not support him.
Amid all this, US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte has called for visiting Islamabad while Zardari has rejected the call as US interference in Pakistani affairs. Therefore, it seems that Musharraf remaining in power will lead to differences between Washington and the PPP-led government on the one hand and other political parties and Musharraf on the other.
Nevertheless, Musharraf has rejected his resignation. All in all, Pakistani political parties and government are entangled in the tough situation of making a decision about Musharraf. Two possibilities exist: Musharraf resigns by being granted privileges by the government or him being impeached by the parliament. How Musharraf behaves in this sensitive juncture can either create a crisis for Pakistan or navigate it toward national reconciliation.
The PPP-led government, which wants to resolve the power crisis through diplomatic means, is under great pressure by PML (N), supreme court judges and other political currents to immediately pave the grounds for impeaching Musharraf. If Musharraf does not resign and is impeached by parliament, Pakistan will enter a new dangerous era. If Musharraf uses his legal right and dissociates the parliament and sacks the government, the role of the army will be very decisive. This is exactly what Zardari has warned about some people contemplating another army-backed coup attempt.
Things are not as easy as they look, as the governing sociopolitical conditions are entirely different from 1999 when Musharraf managed to oust Sharif in a military coup. Today, the opposition has strong support among the public and the possibility of a resistance to coup cannot be ruled out. Furthermore, it is not yet clear whether the army is prepared for launching another coup or not, as such an attempt needs foreign support.
The difference between the US, who intends to keep Musharraf in power, and the PPP-led government, is the issue of possible US support for a coup attempt. However, the tribal areas and local Taliban are another issue. The recent negotiations between the government and the local Taliban leaders has been a source of disappointment in Washington. The plain truth is that the negotiations between the government and local Taliban has led to intensification of the war in Afghanistan, which the US did not like. Therefore, it is likely that Musharraf takes the element of the US support seriously and resist resignation and be hopeful about the army’s support.
It must be noted that Musharraf remains to be America’s best choice in the war on terror. At present, there is no other acceptable choice for America to be able to confront the Taliban. Nevertheless, it is not clear if another coup takes place in Pakistan, the situation will be under control. This helps explain why opposing political parties have designated June 10 as the deadline for Musharraf to resign or face impeachment and trial.
The issue of the US military objectives in tribal areas under the pretext of hunting Osama bin Laden should not be overlooked either. It must be borne in mind that a part of the political crisis in Pakistan has to do with the developments in tribal areas and it is not clear if Pakistan can maintain its national sovereignty if the US enters the tribal fray.
The issue of the army supporting Musharraf or not can be a decisive factor for the fate of Musharraf as well as Pakistan. As mentioned earlier the army cannot launch a coup without foreign support and if conditions are ripe a coup will be inevitable. This way most likely the both the government and Musharraf will be victimized and another general will take over under the pretext of saving Pakistan. Not to mention that there exists the possibility of resistance of political parties and the people being dragged into streets given the fact that radical Taliban militia are heavily armed.
It seems that Pakistan is entrapped between fortifying democratic institutions and return of generals to power. It is very likely that army gains control one more time, but the price that Pakistan may pay is probably much higher than the scenario that the generals endorse Musharraf and fan the flames of a civil war.
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MONDAY, JUNE 2
VIENNA - IAEA Board of Governors meet (to June 6)
BANGKOK - (ADJOURNED FROM MARCH 10) Trial resumes of Canadian Christopher Neil on charges of molesting under-age children in Thailand.
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