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The Problem With Oil
Compiled by Ghanbar Naderi
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Oil majors collaborate with politicians and intelligence services to leak news that would boil investorsŐ speculation.
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Iran has refused to follow Saudi Arabia in raising its crude production presumably to calm volatility in the international oil markets.
“We have some spare capacity in oil production. At the same time, we have to say that there is no need for more supplies to the market. If there is going to be any need in the market, we surely are going to contribute to that,“ Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari said, adding that the present prices are neither good for producers nor buyers.
Iran’s stance did not come as a surprise as OPEC, that feed 40 percent of world oil supplies, has been steadfast in its refusal to raise output. Tehran is the organization’s second-largest exporter and has been blaming market speculators aiming to make a fast buck out of a weakening dollar for oil’s rally.
Blame Game
Big energy consumers would like to keep blaming producers that they are not pumping enough crude, thus keeping prices high. Producers, with the members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries at the center-stage, insist that there is enough oil in the market--independent market figures endorse this.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has blamed the West for artificially raising crude oil prices. On a visit to Malaysia, he told a news conference Tuesday that the global production of oil is much more than consumption.
“So it is very clear that the market does not have a role in raising prices. There are others that are determining the price for the benefit of the few, very rich people of the world,“ he said.
According to Presstv, Democratic nominee Barack Obama has also said that harsh US rhetoric toward the world’s fourth-largest oil exporter has driven up the crude prices.
The Illinois senator urged the Bush administration to tone down the anti-Iran rhetoric in the hopes of seeing lower oil prices. “There are some geopolitical issues that affect the price of oil. So for us to ratchet down the rhetoric when it comes to Iran, for example, and engage in principled diplomacy, might calm the markets down,“ he noted.
Problem of Speculators
A long-term problem is refining capacity in consumer countries. Most refineries around the globe are working at 98 percent capacity, and even if producers pumped more oil, it might not find its way to end-consumers. For example, the largest world consumer of energy, USA, has not seen a new refinery built in the last quarter of a century.
Another reason might be an important factor in pushing up oil prices, along with other hard and soft commodities’ prices. That is speculation by investment funds targeting commodities’ futures away from turbulent financial markets.
That last reason, stressed by producers and some market analysts and denied by politicians in consumer countries, is opening the way for conspiracy theorists to easily explain sharp leaps in oil markets.
Some would argue that big oil majors collaborate with politicians and intelligence services to leak news that would boil investors’ speculation.
Media exchanges between Israel and Iran added more than $5 to the price of oil last week, and a slight provocation to Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez could trigger a threat to cut oil and thus stir the markets.
US-Made
It might be worth mentioning that oil prices in real terms--minus inflation and dollar depreciations--are not that higher than the boom of the early 1980s. Second, the fear of high energy prices dampening global economic prospects further could be a bit exaggerated, as up until now, the world is coping well with higher prices.
A possible recession has roots in the structural imbalances of the American economy, coupled with the subprime mortgage crisis and global credit crunch--all US-made.
Indeed, it is the market dynamics at work which should be allowed to self-correct without manipulation.
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Melli Bank Fighting EU Sanctions
Melli Bank Plc on Tuesday began legal proceedings at London’s High Court against illegal sanctions imposed by the EU to freeze its accounts.
Acting for the bank incorporated under the British law, barrister Richard Gordon told the court that the sanctions should not apply to Melli Bank Plc and should be suspended pending a judgment by the European Court of First Instance.
The bank in London was strictly regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA), the UK’s financial watchdog, and legally and functionally distinct from its parent company, IRNA quoted Gordon as saying.
The legal challenge comes after the EU’s secretariat journal, documented the sanctions decision last month, claiming that Bank Melli had ’facilitated numerous purchases of sensitive materials for Iran’s nuclear and missile program’.
The decision to freeze the accounts of Bank Melli goes much further than the latest UN sanctions in March, which simply calls on member countries to ’exercise vigilance’ over the activities of Iranian financial institutions.
The barrister told the court that the London subsidiary, which adopted operational autonomy in 2002 after it was approved by the FSA as conforming to all UK accounting standards and disclosures, had never been specifically cited in any UN resolution.
The sanctions were disproportionate and amounted to a freezing of assets without evidence and without limit of time, which was an infringement of EU law, he said.
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Capital Markets Boom
Recession in the housing market has led to rise in capital market indices, said managing director of Bank Keshavarzi Brokerage Firm.
Hossein Kharrazi attributed the rise in bourse index and the highest stock exchange trading to the adjustment of profit of shares of steel and mining companies, ISNA reported.
It is also due to the positive view of shareholders toward the capital market, he added.
The government’s economic plan is another factor contributing to the boom, the official underlined.
The plan to do away with subsidies particularly in the energy sector has driven stockholders to show greater interest in investing in steel and mining industries.
Criticizing the performance of minor shareholders and some of major and experienced shareholders in the capital market, he said the indices are influenced by the hasty measures of these groups.
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Guilds Co. Plan Near Completion
The plan to establish Iranian Guilds Company has been completed, disclosed spokesman of State Guilds Council.
Qassem Nodeh Farahani told IRNA that the plan will be submitted to the Commerce Ministry for final approval.
The proposed company aims to create a healthy distribution network for goods and do away with intermediaries in the consumer market, the official explained.
The plan will become operational once the final approval of the ministry is obtained within three months, he assured.
Guilds Research Center has conducted feasibility studies and researches on the plan for a year by considering its problems, capabilities and requirements, Nodeh Farahani pointed out.
“Initially, about 20,000 shops, as part of the distribution network, will be launched nationwide. The number of units will eventually rise to 50,000.“
Over 360 unions for guild affairs will operate on behalf of Iranian Guilds Company in 30 provinces to supervise control and create distribution networks.
Once the giant distribution network goes on stream, the consumer market will witness stable prices, Nodeh Farahani concluded.
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Iran-US Trade Grows Tenfold
United States exports to Iran grew more than tenfold during President George Bush’s years in office. For instance, America sent more cigarettes to Iran, at least $158 million under Bush, than any other products.
Other surprising shipments to Iran during the Bush administration: fur clothing, sculptures, perfume and musical instruments. Top states shipping goods to Iran include California, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin, according to an analysis by The Associated Press of seven years of US government trade data.
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Few people or companies asking US permission to trade with Iran are turned down by the Treasury Department.
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Asked about the report, Republican presidential candidate John McCain said “Maybe that’s a way of killing them.“ “I meant that as a joke,“ McCain quickly explained.
Taking a more serious tone, McCain said, “I’d like to look into details of exports to Iran. This is the first time that I’ve heard about it.“
Despite increasingly tough rhetoric toward Iran, US trade in a range of goods survives on-again, off-again sanctions illegally imposed nearly three decades ago. The rules allow sales of agricultural commodities, medicine and other categories of goods.
“Our sanctions are targeted against the government, not the people,“ claimed Adam Szubin, director of the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, which enforces the sanctions.
“The government tracks exports to Iran using details from shipping records, but in some cases it’s unclear whether anyone pays attention,“ he noted.
The US government seems uncoordinated on efforts to limit trade with Iran. The Securities and Exchange Commission sought to shine a light on companies active in Iran but stopped after business groups complained. The Treasury Department allowed some companies and individuals trading with Iran to escape punishment.
The fact that the United States sells anything to Iran is news to some.
“Until you just told me that about Iran I’m not sure I knew we did any business with Iran,“ said Fred Wetherington, a tobacco grower in Hahira, Ga., and chairman of Georgia’s tobacco commission. “I thought because of the situation between our two governments, I didn’t think we traded with them at all, so I certainly didn’t know they were getting any cigarettes.“
The US sent Iran $546 million in goods from 2001 through last year, government figures show. It exported roughly $146 million worth last year, compared with $8.3 million in 2001, Bush’s first year in office. Even adjusted for inflation, that is more than a tenfold increase.
List of Items
Top US exports to Iran over Bush’s years in office include corn, $68 million; chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate, $64 million; soybeans, $43 million; medical equipment, $27 million; vitamins, $18 million; and vegetable seeds, $12 million, according to the AP’s analysis of government trade data compiled by the World Institute for Strategic Economic Research in Holyoke.
The value of cigarettes sold to Iran was more than twice that of the No. 2 category on the export list, vaccines, serums and blood products, $73 million.
Also getting Bush administration approval for export to Iran were at least $101,000 worth of clothes; $175,000 in sculptures; nearly $96,000 worth of cosmetics; $8,900 in perfume; $30,000 in musical instruments and parts; $21,000 in golf carts and/or snowmobiles; and $3,300 in fur clothing.
Few people or companies asking US permission to trade with Iran are turned down by the Treasury Department, the lead agency for licensing exports to sanctioned countries. During Bush’s terms, the office has received at least 4,523 license applications for Iran exports, issued at least 2,821 licenses and 213 license amendments and denied at least 178, Treasury Department data shows.
Neither the Treasury data nor trade data compiled by the Census Bureau identify exporters or specify what they shipped. Though some trade with Iran is legal, some businesses prefer that people not know about it.
The Bush administration’s record enforcing export laws is mixed. The Office of Foreign Assets Control let the statute of limitations expire in at least 25 cases involving trade with Iran.
The companies involved include Acterna Corp., American Export Lines, Parvizian Masterpieces, Protrade International Corp., Rex of New York, Shinhan Bank, Phoenix Biomedical Corp., World Cargo Alliance and World Fuel Services.
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Int’l Furniture Symposium in Tehran
By Sadeq Dehqan
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Photo by Ali Hassanpour
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The First International Symposium on Furniture Trade and Interior Design opened in Tehran on Wednesday at the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting Organization’s International Conference Hall.
It aims to lay the grounds for further cooperation of domestic and foreign companies in the field.
Ali Ansari, head of Tehran Province Furniture Producers Guild said the event a first step towards modernization of Iranian furniture manufacturing industry, adding that it also will help enhance collaboration between private and public sectors.
With regard to Article 44 of the Iranian Constitution pertaining to the privatization of state-owned companies, he said, “If allowed to play a bigger role in the national economy, the private sector can easily develop and integrate with other sectors. Private enterprise has the money and drive, which makes it easier to succeed in this business.“
The industry was urged to abandon traditional methods and focus more on modern practices “as this can help increase production and pave the way for entering regional and international markets.“
Ansari pointed to the importance of setting up industrial townships for furniture and called on the officials to support domestic producers and curb furniture imports.
The country plans to annually attract 20 million tourists by 2020 and that the furniture industry can play a key role to this end, for instance, by making beautiful and modern furniture for hotels and inns or woodworks and artifacts that could be sold to tourists.
In conclusion, he called on the academic centers to offer courses on interior design and furniture industry.
Furniture companies and representatives from Turkey, Italy, England, Malaysia and Austria as well as Iranian experts and officials are attending the two-day event which ends Thursday.
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Syria Motor Show
The two Iranian leading auto-maker companies, Iran Khodro and SAIPA,
were warmly welcomed at the Eighth Syrian International Motor Show
(SYRMOTOR SHOW 2008) in Damascus from July 1 to 7.
Domestic Wheat Purchase
The government has purchased 2.43 million tons of wheat worth around 7,230 billion rials from farmers since the harvest season. According to the Commerce Ministry, the provinces of Fars, Khuzestan and Golestan were the top wheat producers.
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$ Slips on Iran
The US dollar fell and Asian stocks surrendered some gains on Wednesday, after a report that Iran tested a new modern missile, raising concerns this week’s $9 dip in oil prices is only fleeting.
Crude crept up to session highs above $137 a barrel and the Swiss franc and yen, currencies that serve as safe havens in times of market volatility, strengthened after state media reported Iran fired a Shahab 3 missile capable of hitting targets 1,250 miles away, Reuters reported.
European stocks are expected to open broadly 1 percent higher, according to financial bookmakers, riding a rebound in global equity markets which hit fresh lows on Tuesday.
“The dollar had been strong and oil prices had been falling, but the missile firing will rekindle inflationary concerns,“ said Fumiyuki Nakanishi, group manager of the investment information department at SMBC Friend Securities in Tokyo.
Japan’s Nikkei share average clung to gains of 0.15 percent, rebounding from a three-month low the previous session. Shares of companies in the Asia-Pacific region excluding Japan were up 1.8 percent on the day but down 23 percent on the year-to-date.
The All-Countries world index slipped to the lowest since October 2006 before rebounding thanks to a fall in oil prices and a bounce in financial stocks on Wall Street.
Saudis Feel Poorer
Inflation that has hit 30-year highs on everything else in Saudi Arabia is making Saudis feel poorer despite the flush of oil money, AP reported.
While Saudis don’t feel the pain at the pump, they feel it everywhere else, paying more at grocery stores and restaurants and for rent and construction material. While the country is getting richer selling oil at prices that climbed to a record $145 per barrel last week, inflation has reached almost 11 percent, breaking double-digits for the first time since the late 1970s.
Moreover, Saudis are grappling with unemployment--estimated at 30 percent among young people aged 16 to 26--and a stock market that is down 10 percent since the beginning of the year.
Many Saudis are realizing that this oil boom will not have the same impact as the one in the 1970s, which raised Saudis from rags to riches. This time, the wealth isn’t trickling down as fast or in the same quantities.
China Economy to Overtake US in 2035
China’s economy will overtake that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by mid-century, a study released by a US research organization concluded.
The report by economist Albert Keidel of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said China’s rapid growth is driven by domestic demand more than exports, which will be sustainable over the coming decades, The Economic Times reported.
“China’s economic performance clearly is no flash in the pan,“ Keidel writes.
“Its growth this decade has averaged more than 10 percent a year and is still going strong in the first half of 2008. Because its success in recent decades has not been export-led but driven by domestic demand, its rapid growth can continue well into the 21st century, unfettered by world market limitation.“
Keidel, who has worked as a World Bank economist and US Treasury official, said the rise of China to the world’s biggest economy will happen regardless of the method of calculation.
EU Will Publish Weekly Oil Stocks
Aiming to cool rocketing oil prices, European Union nations agreed to publish how much oil they have in reserve every week to reassure traders.
Most European countries currently publish information on their oil reserves every month, AP reported.
French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said more transparency on oil stocks “means we can have a consistent, coherent picture“ of what is happening on the oil market.
The European Commission should put forward details on how this should be done when the EU’s 27 finance ministers meet in October, she said after chairing talks on the economy between EU countries.
EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said several EU countries---including Germany--had been reluctant about publishing stocks more regularly when the idea was first floated in 2005 but they now agree unanimously that it is a good idea.
SP Phase 12 Refinery Construction Begins
Executive operations to construct a new refinery for Phase 12 of South Pars gas field will begin Thursday in the Tonbak region.
Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari, top oil industry officials, managers and directors of South Pars Gas Field, as well as local officials are to attend the inauguration ceremony on Thursday morning.
Managing Director of Pars Oil and Gas Company Ali Vakili told Iran Daily that the operations will help expedite industrial and economic development of Tonbak region, adding that the new refinery will be built on an area of 220 hectares.
According to him, the new refinery’s industrial facilities and infrastructure will be constructed by the NASR Consortium under an EPCI (engineering, procurement, construction and installation) contract worth $284 million.
It will take 15 months to build the residential site around the refinery.
Each of the offshore platforms of Phase 12 can produce about one billion cubic feet of natural gas. South Pars ranks the world’s largest offshore gas field and extends from Iran to the Persian Gulf island of Qatar.
Mirkazemi Pushing Export Agenda
In view of the saturated domestic markets, traders should focus more on exports, advised Commerce Minister Masoud Mirkazemi calling for the formation of specialized working groups to identify and remove the obstacles to exports.
He said that in the year to March 2009, the ministry’s agenda includes the establishment of export terminals and proposals to make amendments to the laws governing export, reported IRIB.
Promoting exports and controlling target markets, he said, demand: benefiting from the experience of successful exporting countries, heeding the development criteria for exports, raising productivity, reducing tariffs, making investment and supplying market demands.
Non-oil exports witnessed a growth of 7.5 percent in volume and 8.6 percent in value during March-September 2007.
According to the Public Relations Office of Iran’s Customs Administration, about 15.5 million tons of commodities valued at $7 billion were exported during the period compared to 14.4 million tons of goods worth $6.5 billion shipped overseas during the same period of the previous year.
Of this figure, $26.6 million were in form of carry-on-luggage trade and $165 million pertained to border market transactions.
In addition, gas liquids accounted for $2.9 billion of the total non-oil exports. Liquid propane and butane costing $816.9 million accounted for 11.5 percent of the total export, followed by pistachio (4.9 percent) and hydrocarbons (3.8 percent).
Top destinations for Iran’s export during the period included the UAE which imported 2.4 million tons of commodities worth $1 billion from Iran.
Iraq with $794 million, China with $561 million, Japan with $424 million and India with $340 million ranked second to fifth respectively.
Aras FTZ Needs Airport
An airport is needed in Aras Free Trade Zone in northwestern West Azarbaijan province despite its proximity to the airports in Khoy and Tabriz, said deputy head of Aras Free Trade Zone Organization for planning affairs.
Iraj Hatami told ISNA that free trade zones should have direct transport links so that overseas visitors can come directly to the zone. As per free trade zones’ law, individuals are entitled to enter the zone without visa, he observed.
Since Aras FTZ is not adjacent to the sea, it should have an independent airport as a direct access, the official underlined.
Currently everybody who wants to visit the zone, should obtain visa and enter the country from nearby airports, Hatami pointed out. This is in contradiction with free trade zones’ law, he complained.
Construction of airport in this zone is legally justified, the official added.
Regional support for Aras Free Trade Zone can lead to economic prosperity and an improvement of border trade in the northwestern parts of the country.Aras Free Trade Zone is a geo-economic region.
Saipa to Export to Bolivia
The first batch of cars, produced by Saipa Auto Manufacturing Group, comprising of Saipa 132, Saba Prides and Z24 pick-ups will be exported to Bolivia this year.
According to a fax sent to Iran Daily, the Bolivian side expressed interest in buying CNG-kit equipped Saipa cars following a visit to the production lines of Saipa, Pars Khodro and Zamyad which are all members of the Saipa Group of Industries.
Suitable price, equipment and safety of automobiles, manufactured by Saipa, coupled with the low price of CNG in Bolivia are among the reasons for the interest of the Bolivians in importing Saipa cars.
The automobiles are expected to be used as taxis in the main cities of Bolivia.
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