The exchange of remains of two Israeli soldiers with those of 200 Hezbullah combatants and five Lebanese prisoners on Wednesday has had different reactions in Lebanon and Israel.
In Lebanon the return of the five long-serving prisoners along with the remains of the large number of fighters emerged as an occasion for national celebration while Israel was in mourning. Lebanon’s Islamic resistance groups consider, and rightly so, the deal as another hard-earned victory after defeating the formidable occupying power in the 33-day war in the summer of 206.
Lebanon’s government and people across the political, religious and social spectrum participated in the rare home-coming. The occasion, among other things, was yet another reminder that Lebanon despite its huge internal problems is united and speaks with one voice when it comes to resisting the western-backed Israel regime and its non-stop lawlessness.
For now the focal point for Lebanon and its people is the liberation of the Sheeba Farms, which is still under Israeli occupation.
The latest swap, however, entails some consequences for both sides and demands scrutiny. It is obvious that the swap is a victory for Lebanon’s government and people. The primary feature behind Lebanon’s success this time around is the Islamic resistance and Hezbullah. The latter’s already popular position inside the country will be enhanced and cemented further. Nevertheless, more pressure will be exerted by Israel and its key allies in Europe and the US for disarming the powerful Hezbullah.
It is a bit too early to issue judgments on what will follow in the aftermath of the new pressure tactics expected sooner rather than later. The dominant view in most political corridors is that Hezbullah will keep its weapons until Israel leaves the Sheeba Farms and withdraws from all Lebanese territories. It is amply clear that the volatile Middle East is on the verge of profound developments, which could hardly be perceived or conceived in the not too distant past. As such, and is the norm in today’s complicated and confused world, nothing is impossible.
For instance, one possibility is that Israel’s corrupted rulers not unaware of the disgrace visiting them at short intervals could decide to get out of the farms.
Meanwhile, the existence of two armies, namely the national army and Hezbullah fighters is indeed a serious issue. How and when these and other important issues will be resolved will weigh heavily on the future of the troubled land. Needless to say, it will also set the groundwork for Hezbullah’s future.
The swap is important also for Israel, which is mourning. The most essential outcome of the swap for it should be sought in the hardly concealed reality that the usurper state is prepared more than ever before . It is ready and willing to compromise and can strike a bigger deal by return the Arab territories it occupied in the 1967 war.
Although it would be immature to set out the clear patterns of what will come in the coming months, the simple truth remains that Israel is not mourning because its two soldiers were brought home in coffins. Its rulers are more concerned about the consequences of a graver deal they will be obliged to accept in the future. If the land-for-peace deal is to see the light of day, this week’s prisoner swap should be considered as a prelude to that undertaking.