0631 GMT January 26, 2020
The thaw on the remote Svalbard islands, home to 2,300 people and where the main village of Longyearbyen is 1,300 kilometers from the North Pole, highlights risks in other parts of the Arctic from Alaska to Siberia, Reuters reported.
Average temperatures on Svalbard have leapt between 3°C and 5°C since the early 1970s and could rise by a total of 10°C by 2100 if world greenhouse gas emissions keep climbing, the study said.
Almost 200 governments promised in the 2015 Paris climate agreement to limit a rise in average global temperatures to ‘well below’ 2°C above pre-industrial times by 2100. Worldwide, temperatures are up about 1°C.
On Svalbard, the envisaged rise in temperatures would thaw the frozen ground underpinning many buildings, roads and airports, cause more avalanches, ‘slushflows’ and landslides, melt glaciers and threaten wildlife such as polar bears and seals that rely on sea ice to hunt.
“A 10°C warming, with the implications for Arctic nature, ice-dependent species, will be devastating,” Climate and Environment Minister Ola Elvestuen said.
Norway will have to increase investment to relocate buildings from avalanche paths and drill deeper infrastructure foundations as permafrost thaws, the report said.
Two people died in 2015 when an avalanche destroyed 10 houses in Longyearbyen.
Many other parts of the Arctic, especially its islands, are also warming far quicker than the world average as the retreat of snow and sea ice exposes darker water and ground that soaks up ever more of the sun’s heat.
Temperatures on Svalbard would stay around current levels only if governments make unprecedented cuts in global emissions, the report said.
“No one is doing enough” to limit greenhouse gas emissions, Elvestuen said of Norwegian government actions.
“We have to do more ... .The use of oil and gas has to go down.”
Norway is western Europe’s biggest oil and gas exporter.
Inger Hanssen-Bauer, head of the Norwegian Center for Climate Services, which produced the report, said the findings were a warning for the rest of the Arctic.
“The main message is that these changes are happening so fast,” she said.