Iran would likely be able to maintain some shipments for debt repayment to China and India, and into storage in China, analyst Sara Vakhshouri said, reported Reuters.
The OPEC member exported between 1.02 mbd and 1.3 mbd of crude and condensate in April, said Refinitiv Eikon and Kpler, a company that tracks oil flows.
The dearth of information is a headache for other OPEC members and allies, which meet to set oil supply policy in June. OPEC canceled an April meeting, partly due to this uncertainty.
Iranian oil officials have welcomed this opacity. Tehran insists it will keep selling oil and is examining new ways of doing so, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh, was quoted as saying on Wednesday.
Kayrros, a company that tracks oil flows, put Iranian crude exports in March at 1.4 to 1.65 mbd.
The oil industry has for some years used tanker-tracking to work out actual supplies in the absence of timely official information. While easier than in the past due to satellite information, tanker tracking is still both art and science.
Tankers loading Iranian crude sometimes switch off their AIS signal, an automatic tracking system used on ships, only to switch it back on at a later stage of their journey, according to oil industry source, making it harder to see actual volumes.