News ID: 252595
Published: 0105 GMT May 10, 2019

EU chief: Chance of Brexit being canceled could be 30%

EU chief: Chance of Brexit being canceled could be 30%
Tom Jacobs/REUTERS
Flags flutter outside the Houses of Parliament, ahead of a Brexit vote, in London, Britain, on March 13, 2019.

The chances of the UK staying in the EU are as high as 30% as the country would be likely to reject Brexit in a second referendum, President of the European Council Donald Tusk said.

The bloc’s most senior official claimed the British public had only truly debated Brexit after the 2016 referendum and there was significant reason to believe the leave vote could be reversed, The Guardian reported.

Describing the decision by the former British prime minister, David Cameron, to call the vote as a political miscalculation, Tusk said he would expect a different result in a vote today given what had been learned about the consequences of leaving.

“The referendum was at the worst possible moment, it is the result of a wrong political calculation,” Tusk said in an interview with the Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza (GW) that was shared with the Guardian as part of the Europa collaboration of six European newspapers.

“A real debate about the consequences of Brexit wasn’t had during the referendum campaign, but only after the vote. Today the result would probably look different. Paradoxically, Brexit awoke in Great Britain a pro-European movement.”

Tusk said he had been moved by the anti-Brexit march in London earlier this year during which he was celebrated as a voice calling for the UK to reconsider.

UK will eventually leave EU – Poll

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According to the vast majority of economists polled by Reuters who were, however, split on whether the two sides would divorce on Oct. 31, Britain will eventually leave the European Union and agree a free-trade deal with the bloc.

Prime Minister Theresa May failed to get her Withdrawal Agreement ratified by the British Parliament on three attempts so the EU allowed a Brexit delay until the end of October, giving May time to try to convince lawmakers to reach agreement, Reuters reported.

When asked if the latest deadline – delayed from March 29 – would be extended, 17 of 33 economists who answered an extra question in the May 3-10 Reuters poll said it would not.

“Failure to come to an agreement runs the risk that the EU will simply lose patience in October and not grant any extension,” said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank.

“We are by no means out of the woods.”

It’s nearly three years since the June 2016 referendum when Britons shocked much of the world and voted to leave the EU but it is still unclear how, when, or even if it will ever quit the club it joined in 1973.

But the median forecast in the latest survey gave the chance of a disorderly Brexit – where no deal is agreed and an outcome Reuters polls have repeatedly said would be harmful to both sides – at 15%, as it was in March and April.

Only one of 50 respondents gave a probability above 50%.

Still, as they have in all Reuters polls since late 2016 most economists said the two sides would settle on a free-trade deal. The second most likely outcome was again Britain as a member of the European Economic Area, paying into the EU budget to maintain access to the EU’s single market.

In third spot was Brexit being cancelled – once more ahead of Britain leaving without an agreement and trading under World Trade Organization rules, which came last.

“All options remain on the table in the UK, including no Brexit, a hard Brexit and even another extension beyond October,” said Kallum Pickering at Berenberg.

Britain avoided the recession predicted in the event the country decided to leave the EU and the median chance of one in the next year was only 20%, down from 25% given last month. For the next two years, the probability was an unchanged 25%.

However, growth is expected to remain tepid and the world’s fifth largest economy will grow 0.2-0.4% per quarter across the forecast horizon, from here through to the end of 2020, unchanged from last month’s poll.

Inflation, however, is expected to rise and will average 1.9% this year and 2.0% in 2020 and 2021 – matching the Bank of England’s target – the poll found.

 

   
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