Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Latin America’s second largest economy is seen at 0.0 percent in the second quarter versus the previous three-month period, in seasonally adjusted terms, according to the median forecast of 12 analysts.
“Whether or not the number is above or below zero, the economy is extremely weak. GDP has hardly grown at all over the last 18 months or so,” said William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.
Mexico’s economy already shrank 0.2 percent in the first quarter versus the previous three-month period, in seasonally adjusted terms, and was flat in the fourth quarter of 2018.
In non-seasonally adjusted annual terms, Mexico’s economy is seen expanding 0.5 percent in the second quarter, in what would be its weakest performance since the fourth quarter of 2009, according to the poll.
The analysts forecast 0.8 percent GDP growth for all of 2019 and 1.4 percent in 2020.
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lowered its estimate for Mexico’s economic growth to 0.9 percent for 2019, down from its forecast of 1.6 percent three months ago.
Preliminary data for Mexico’s second-quarter growth is due to be published on July 31 by the INEGI statistics agency.
Some private economists predict a second straight quarter of contraction, sparking a debate over whether that would put Mexico into recession.