A leaked report from the International Monetary Fund said earlier this year that Tanzania’s economy has not been expanding as fast as official figures suggest. It said lower growth was partly due to President John Magufuli’s ‘unpredictable and interventionist’ policies, according to Reuters.
In the first quarter, construction, the biggest driver of GDP, grew 13.2 percent, compared with 15.6 percent a year ago, the state-run National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
However, growth in the mining sector, which has been the target of repeated government interventions, rebounded to 10.0 percent from a 5.7 percent decline during the same period in 2018. Tanzania is Africa’s fourth-largest gold producer.
“The growth (of the mining sector) was mainly due to an increase in production of gold, coal and diamonds,” said NBS.
Magufuli embarked on an ambitious program of industrialization after coming to power in late 2015, investing billions of dollars in infrastructure, including a new rail line and a major hydropower plant and reviving the national airline.
But critics say government intervention in mining and agriculture have discouraged investment. Foreign direct investment has slumped and private sector lending growth dropped below four percent in 2018, from an average of 20 percent between 2013-16.
Agriculture, which accounts for about a third of economic activity, also slowed in the first quarter of this year, with crop production growing 6.0 percent compared to 8.9 percent in the same period last year, the statistics bureau said.
Last year the government sent the military to seize the cashew harvest, the main export crop, after complaints by farmers that prices offered by brokers were too low.
Manufacturing, another key GDP contributor, grew 4.8 percent in the first quarter compared with 5.3 percent a year earlier.
Tanzania’s economy grew seven percent last year, according to the government which has forecast 7.1 percent growth in 2019.
Earlier this month, however, the World Bank released its own estimates that said Tanzania’s economy grew 5.2 percent in 2018.
Following the World Bank report, Tanzania said it might revise its 2018 GDP growth rate after meetings in August.
In April, a leaked report from the International Monetary Fund predicted lower growth of around 4-5 percent in the ‘medium-term’.
The IMF report said there were serious weaknesses in Tanzania’s official data.